Global grain forecasts rise for 2026/27 season

Global grain production forecasts for the 2026/27 marketing year increased across multiple commodities, according to the USDA Economic Research Service reports covering wheat, oilseeds and coarse grains. Wheat production is expected to reach 820.1 million metric tons, up 1 million metric tons from last month’s estimate. Coarse grain production rose by 5.8 million tons to 1.594 billion tons, while Argentina’s soybean harvest for 2025/26 exceeded expectations. The increases reflect favorable growing conditions in Russia, Turkey, India and Australia, though some regions saw reductions.

PixabayWheat production climbs on Russian, Turkish gains

Russia’s wheat production increased based on higher winter wheat yields. Precipitation in major growing areas has been above average during the growing season, leading to expectations of stronger yields. Turkey’s production rose to a record high on increased yields, supported by beneficial rainfall, adequate snow cover during freezing weather and cool temperatures during flowering.

Ukraine’s forecast rose slightly with stronger anticipated yields driven by favorable weather and above-average crop conditions in the Steppe and Forest Steppe zones.

Australia’s production dropped on smaller harvested area. Higher input costs and dry conditions are expected to reduce the incentive for producers to plant wheat, according to the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences. The United States forecast declined on reduced winter wheat yields. Pakistan’s production fell on smaller yields, with late-season crop losses caused by heat stress and storms, mainly in Punjab.

Global wheat exports for the July to June 2026/27 trade year are forecast down 0.8 million metric tons from May to 213.4 million metric tons. Australia’s exports declined with a smaller crop, while Ukraine’s exports rose with larger production and expectations of stronger shipments.

India drives coarse grain increases

India’s corn production for 2026/27 rose 5 million metric tons from the May estimate, though the revised forecast remains more than 3 million metric tons below the record harvest expected for 2025/26. India’s Ministry of Agriculture published its third advanced estimates on May 27, reporting record food grain production of 376.5 million tons. The 2025/26 corn crop is projected at 55.09 million tons, the highest on record.

Turkey’s 2026/27 coarse grain production increased 0.5 million metric tons, driven by barley improvements. Beneficial autumn and winter rainfall is expected to support year-over-year increases in barley production, with yield forecasts raised from 2.21 to 2.35 metric tons per hectare.

Australia’s coarse grain production rose on a 0.4 million metric ton increase in oats, nearly 30 percent higher than last month. The boost comes from expanded harvested area and higher yield projections, now at 2 metric tons per hectare.

Spring drought cuts EU rapeseed yields

The European Union’s rapeseed production forecast for 2026/27 dropped by 0.2 million metric tons to 20.5 million metric tons due to dry conditions that persisted through the spring growing season. The 2026/27 rapeseed crop started well in the fall, but dryness in March and April reduced yield potential. Dry conditions continued into May before timely rainfall returned to France and northern Germany.

Northeastern Europe experienced the most significant moisture deficits, resulting in small yield reductions. Romania and Bulgaria, however, had favorable growing conditions.

Rapeseed yield in the European Union is forecast at 3.25 metric tons per hectare, down 1 percent from last month’s estimate. Harvested area remains unchanged but is up 3 percent from marketing year 2025/26. The production forecast of 20.5 million metric tons is unchanged from the previous marketing year.

EU domestic rapeseed consumption is forecast at 25.8 million metric tons, slightly down from last month. Exports are projected at 0.5 million metric tons, unchanged this month and down 0.2 million metric tons from 2025/26. With lower production and steady demand, ending stocks for 2026/27 are reduced to 2.2 million metric tons, marginally lower than 2025/26.

Argentina soybean harvest exceeds forecasts

Argentina’s soybean production for 2025/26 rose by 2 million metric tons to 50 million metric tons based on higher yields. As the harvest nears completion, yields are reportedly exceeding earlier forecasts. The production forecast for 2026/27 remains unchanged at 50 million metric tons.

Argentina’s soybean crush for 2025/26 rose by 0.5 million metric tons to 42 million metric tons. For 2026/27, crush is forecast at 43 million metric tons, up 1 million metric tons from the revised 2025/26 figure. The increase reflects expectations that Argentina will process more soybeans domestically now that temporary export tax reductions have expired.

Soybean exports for 2026/27 are forecast at 6.2 million metric tons, down from 9 million metric tons in 2025/26, when lower export taxes temporarily increased sales.