The U.S. hard red winter wheat crop is forecast to be the smallest since 1957, according to the June Wheat Outlook from the U.S. Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service. Drought conditions across major producing states and a long-term decline in wheat acreage have contributed to lower yields and higher abandonment rates, affecting the nation’s wheat supply and export outlook.
Production falls to historic lows
The 2026/27 marketing year projects U.S. all-wheat production at 1.54 billion bushels, down 18 million from the previous month and the lowest since 1970. Hard red winter wheat, typically the largest class for both production and exports, is forecast at 497 million bushels, marking a 69-year low. Winter wheat production overall is expected to drop 27 percent year over year, reaching 1.03 billion bushels, the lowest since 1966. The decline is driven by reduced yields, as area forecasts remain unchanged.
Soft red winter wheat is forecast at 300 million bushels, while white winter wheat is projected at 233 million. Durum and other spring wheat production is estimated at 514 million bushels, down 12 percent from last year. The USDA will release full by-class forecasts in July.
Exports and prices adjust to tighter supply
U.S. all-wheat exports for 2026/27 are forecast at 775 million bushels, unchanged from the previous month but the third lowest since 1972. Export prices are less competitive compared to other global suppliers, and tighter supplies of hard red winter wheat have led to higher prices in some locations. This has prompted millers to adjust their wheat blends for milling.
The season-average all-wheat farm price for 2026/27 is lowered by 50 cents to $6.00 per bushel, reflecting recent declines in futures prices after a rally in late April and early May. Ending stocks are projected at 744 million bushels, slightly below the recent five-year average.
Drought expands across wheat regions
USDA crop condition ratings show only 25 percent of winter wheat in good-to-excellent condition as of early June, down from 54 percent last year and the lowest on record since 1986. Drought now affects 63 percent of U.S. winter wheat production areas, a sharp increase from 15 percent a year ago. While late-season rains reached some regions, they may not have been enough to improve crop conditions.
Spring wheat planting and emergence are slightly ahead of normal, with 98 percent planted and 87 percent emerged as of June 7. Drought affects 22 percent of spring wheat production, up only slightly from last year.
