The USDA's August WASDE report projects a 5 million bushel decline in U.S. wheat production to 1.531 billion bushels with ending stocks down 22%, while corn exports rise 75 million bushels to 3.3 billion on stronger global demand and constrained Ukrainian shipments.
- U.S. wheat production forecast at 1.531 billion bushels, down 5 million from July, with ending stocks projected at 717 million bushels (down 22% year-over-year)
- Corn exports raised to 3.3 billion bushels (up 75 million) driven by stronger global demand and reduced Ukrainian competition
- Wheat prices rise 20 cents to $6.20 per bushel due to tighter stocks-to-use ratio and market expectations
- Global wheat trade declines 0.3 million tons to 212.7 million tons due to Russia-Ukraine conflict disrupting logistics
- U.S. corn production remains second-largest on record at 16 billion bushels with season-average farm price raised 10 cents to $4.50 per bushel
The USDA released its August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates on August 12, 2026, projecting significant shifts across major agricultural commodities. U.S. wheat production is forecast at 1.531 billion bushels, down 5 million from last month, while corn exports are raised 75 million bushels to 3.3 billion on stronger global demand. The report also details changes in rice, oilseeds, livestock and cotton markets as the 2026/27 marketing year takes shape.
Wheat supplies fall, prices rise
U.S. wheat supplies for 2026/27 are down due to lower production, with harvested area and yields reduced. Hard Red Winter and Durum wheat account for most of the decline. Ending stocks are projected at 717 million bushels, down 22% from last year and 5 million less than the previous forecast. The season-average farm price is raised 20 cents to $6.20 per bushel, reflecting a tighter stocks-to-use ratio and market expectations.
Globally, wheat supplies are slightly higher, driven by increased beginning stocks that offset production declines in the European Union, United Kingdom, and Brazil. Heat stress during grain fill reduced yields in the EU and UK. Global consumption is up slightly, mainly due to increased feed use in the EU as corn supplies shrink. World trade is down 0.3 million tons to 212.7 million, with Russia and Ukraine exports lowered because of ongoing conflict disrupting logistics. Ending stocks worldwide are expected to rise to 273.3 million tons, with increases in Ukraine and Russia offsetting declines in Indonesia, Australia, and others.
Corn exports rise despite lower supplies
U.S. corn production for 2026/27 is forecast at 16 billion bushels, slightly higher than last month due to increased harvested area but offset by a lower yield forecast of 180.7 bushels per acre, down 2.3 bushels. This would be the second-largest U.S. corn harvest on record. Beginning stocks are down 75 million bushels to 1.9 billion, reflecting raised exports for the previous year.
Total corn use is forecast 75 million bushels higher to 16.3 billion, with exports raised by the same amount to 3.3 billion bushels. The increase in exports reflects stronger global demand and constrained shipments from Ukraine. Ending stocks fall 137 million bushels to 1.7 billion. The season-average farm price is raised 10 cents to $4.50 per bushel due to tighter supplies.
On the global front, coarse grain production is up 1.1 million tons to 1.593 billion, with higher output in Russia, Ukraine, and Zambia offsetting declines in the EU caused by extreme heat and dryness. Barley production is also up in Russia, Canada, and Ukraine. Global corn stocks are slightly down to 274.7 million tons.
Rice supplies and use increase
U.S. rice supplies for 2026/27 are higher, driven by increased production and beginning stocks. Production is forecast at 158.4 million hundredweight, up 5.1 million from last month due to more harvested area despite a lower yield forecast. Domestic use is raised 2 million hundredweight to 148 million. Ending stocks rise to 36 million hundredweight but remain 33% below last year. The season-average farm price holds steady at $14.90 per hundredweight.
Globally, rice supplies and consumption are slightly higher, with increased production in the U.S. offsetting declines in Peru. World consumption is up marginally, with increases in China, Mozambique, and the U.S. Trade remains unchanged at 62.8 million tons, and ending stocks rise slightly to 192.6 million tons.
Oilseed production shifts
U.S. oilseed production for 2026/27 is projected at 132.7 million tons, up 1.1 million from last month. Soybean production rises to 4.5 billion bushels due to higher harvested area, despite a slightly lower yield forecast. Soybean crush is increased by 30 million bushels to 2.78 billion, supported by strong crush margins and demand for meal and oil. Soybean meal exports are raised by 0.7 million short tons to 22.7 million. Ending stocks rise 10 million bushels to 320 million. Prices for soybeans, meal, and oil remain unchanged.
Foreign oilseed production is slightly lower, with reductions in Ukraine and the EU due to heat and dryness, but gains in Canada’s canola crop. Global soybean ending stocks are up slightly to 124.2 million tons.
Livestock production and trade updates
The report notes a slowdown in U.S. red meat production for 2026, with beef and pork production lowered due to slower slaughter rates and lighter carcass weights. Poultry production is raised, reflecting recent data. Live cattle imports from Mexico are set to resume August 24 through the Douglas, Arizona port only.
Beef exports are steady for 2026 but lowered slightly for 2027. Pork exports are reduced for the second half of 2026 but raised slightly for 2027. Broiler exports remain unchanged, while turkey exports are raised slightly for 2026. Prices for cattle and broilers are lowered for the remainder of 2026, while hog and turkey prices are raised. Egg prices are also increased for the rest of 2026 and early 2027.
Milk production forecasts are unchanged for 2026 but lowered for 2027, with cow inventories up slightly for 2026. Export forecasts for dairy products are mixed, with lower shipments of lactose and nonfat dry milk but higher butter exports. Price forecasts for dairy products vary, resulting in a lowered all-milk price forecast of $19.85 per hundredweight for 2026 and $19.80 for 2027.
Cotton production and stocks decline
U.S. cotton production for 2026/27 is forecast at 13.61 million bales, down more than 90,000 bales from July and nearly 300,000 less than last year. Planted area is up 6% from June, but yields are lowered by 74 pounds per acre. Ending stocks fall to 4 million bales, with a stocks-to-use ratio of 28.8%. The season-average farm price is raised 2 cents to 75 cents per pound.
Globally, cotton supply is down nearly 550,000 bales due to lower beginning stocks despite higher production in Brazil, Greece, and Turkey. Consumption rises by almost 1 million bales, driven by China, India, Vietnam, and Indonesia. Trade increases by nearly 500,000 bales, with higher exports from Brazil and imports by India, Vietnam, and Indonesia. Ending stocks drop by more than 1.5 million bales to 69.7 million, with a stocks-to-use ratio of 56.7%.
