The United States is on track to produce 1.53 billion bushels of wheat this year, down 23% from 2025, according to the latest crop production forecast from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
The USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service released its August crop production report Tuesday, showing farmers expect to harvest an average of 47.8 bushels per acre. That’s down 5.5 bushels from last year’s yield.
Winter wheat, which accounts for the largest share of U.S. production, faces the steepest decline. The USDA forecasts 990 million bushels, a 29% drop from 2025. Average yields are expected to reach 47.0 bushels per acre, down 7.9 bushels from the previous year.
The report shows mixed trends for other wheat varieties. Durum wheat production is projected at 66.4 million bushels, down 23% from last year. Farmers expect to harvest 38.4 bushels per acre, a decrease of 2.2 bushels from 2025.
Other spring wheat shows more resilience, with production forecast at 474 million bushels. That’s down just 5% from last year, with yields expected to reach 51.1 bushels per acre, only 0.6 bushel below 2025 levels.
The August forecast represents a slight downward revision from USDA’s July projections. Overall wheat production dropped less than 1% from last month’s estimate, while durum wheat production fell 6% from the previous forecast.
The USDA collects data from farmers nationwide to produce monthly crop production estimates. The service released the August report on Tuesday, providing updated projections as harvest continues across major wheat-producing states.
