The USDA projects U.S. feed grain ending stocks will fall to 44.4 million metric tons in 2026/27, down 7.9 million metric tons from the previous year, driven by lower production from drought and unfavorable weather combined with increased export demand from global markets.
- U.S. feed grain ending stocks projected at 44.4 million metric tons for 2026/27, a 7.9 million metric ton decline from 2025/26
- Sorghum production dropped 22 percent to 296.4 million bushels, with ending stocks at 23 million bushels—the lowest since 2020/21
- Plains States including Kansas and Nebraska face average production drops of 17 percent, with Nebraska losing 260 million bushels due to drought and heat
- Global coarse grain exports reduced by 0.9 million metric tons as Brazil increases consumption to record highs and EU production falls due to extreme weather
- Corn prices increased to $4.50 per bushel and sorghum to $4.30 per bushel due to tightening stocks and lower supplies-to-use ratios
The U.S. Department of Agriculture projects lower ending stocks for major feed grains in the 2026/27 marketing year, driven by reduced production expectations and increased export demand.
U.S. feed grains ending stocks for the 2026/27 marketing year are projected at 44.4 million metric tons, down 7.9 million metric tons from the revised 2025/26 level, according to the United States Department of Agriculture Feed Outlook: August 2026. The Feed Outlook report is produced by the Economic Research Service, based on the most current World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.
Corn production holds steady despite mixed signals
The 2026/27 corn outlook shows planted area at 96.7 million acres, up 1.4 million acres (1.5%) from last month, while harvested area reached 88.6 million acres, up 1.2 million acres (1.3%). However, the National Agricultural Statistics Service released its first corn yield forecast for 2026 at 2.3 bushels per acre (1.3%) lower than July’s projection. The offsetting factors resulted in forecasted U.S. corn production of 16.0 billion bushels, virtually unchanged from the previous month.
Regional patterns show significant variation. Plains States including Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, and North Dakota are forecast to see an average production drop of 17% from last year. Nebraska faces the largest decline of any state at 260 million bushels, down 13%, driven by an 8% reduction in harvested acres and a 6% yield decrease. Unfavorable weather in July, marked by high temperatures and low precipitation, contributed to year-over-year yield declines.
Corn ending stocks for 2026/27 are projected at 1.7 billion bushels, down 137 million bushels from July. The season-average farm price for producers increased $0.10 per bushel to $4.50, largely based on tightening stocks and a lower stocks-to-use ratio.
Sorghum faces steepest production cut
Sorghum production sees the largest change across the feed grains complex. The 2026/27 sorghum production forecast dropped 83.6 million bushels (22%) to 296.4 million bushels. Harvested acres fell 0.13 million acres (2%) to 5.4 million, while the NASS yield forecast came in 13.9 bushels per acre lower (20%) at 55.4 bushels per acre.
Kansas, the largest producing state, maintains unchanged harvested area but projects yields at 67 bushels per acre for 2026, down 26% from 2025’s 90 bushels per acre. This results in Kansas sorghum production falling 34% from last year to 168 million bushels. Severe drought in the Southern Plains and Colorado reduced both area harvested and yields from 2025.
The forecasted 2026/27 sorghum ending stocks dropped 13.6 million bushels to 23 million, marking the lowest level since 20.3 million bushels in 2020/21. The stocks-to-use ratio fell from 9.7% in July to 7.6%, the lowest since 5.3% in 2020/21. The season-average farm price increased $0.20 per bushel to $4.30.
International market shifts affect trade outlook
Global coarse grains exports were adjusted down 0.9 million metric tons for 2026/27. Brazil’s consumption is projected to increase 2.0 million metric tons to a record-high 100 million metric tons, constraining exportable supplies and contributing to a 1.0 million metric ton export reduction. Corn is increasingly used as a feedstock for ethanol production in Brazil, where more than 30 corn-ethanol and mixed-use plants were operating across multiple states, with another 20 under construction.
The European Union’s 2026/27 corn production was cut 3.6 million metric tons due to extreme hot and dry weather that eroded yield prospects in countries including France and Hungary. Ukraine’s new-crop corn exports were lowered 1.0 million metric tons to 22.0 million due to significant port disruptions associated with the war with Russia, despite a lifted harvest projection.
