The U.S. feed grains production forecast for the 2026/27 marketing year increased 0.4 million metric tons this month to 420.1 million metric tons, according to the July Feed Outlook report released Monday by USDA’s Economic Research Service.
The forecast represents a 6% decline from last year’s record harvest but stands 4% above the next-largest production year of 402.6 million metric tons in 2023, based on data from USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service.
Sorghum production accounts for most of the month-to-month increase at 0.3 million metric tons, following a 185,000-acre rise in projected harvested area to 5.485 million acres. Corn and oats production each increased about 0.1 million metric tons, while barley production fell by roughly the same amount.
Corn use reaches new high
Domestic corn use for the 2025/26 marketing year jumped 125 million bushels in the July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. The increase reflects a 150-million-bushel rise in feed and residual use, partially offset by a 25-million-bushel decrease in expected ethanol usage.
Third-quarter corn usage hit an all-time high of 3.74 billion bushels, surpassing the previous record of 3.70 billion bushels set in 2020/21. Feed and residual use for the quarter reached 1.09 billion bushels, bringing the total for the first three quarters to 5.63 billion bushels.
The forecast for total corn use for ethanol in 2025/26 stands at 5.55 billion bushels, about 2% more than the 5.44 billion bushels used in 2024/25. If realized, this would mark the second-largest amount on record, falling about 1% below 2017/18 levels.
The 2026/27 corn stocks-to-use ratio fell to 11.0% from 12.1% last month. Ending stocks dropped 170 million bushels to 1.79 billion, driven by a 125-million-bushel decrease in beginning stocks and a 50-million-bushel increase in expected exports to 3.2 billion bushels.
Heat stress cuts European harvest
Global coarse grains production for 2026/27 declined 2.5 million metric tons this month to 1.592 billion metric tons. European Union corn production dropped 3.7 million metric tons, or 6.5%, to 53.8 million metric tons due to heat stress in France.
Western Europe reported the hottest June on record, according to World Meteorological Organization data. France’s crop-producing areas recorded the second-lowest Vegetation Health Index on record at the end of June, as much of the corn crop began the critical reproductive period during the heat wave.
Kenya’s corn production forecast fell 1.5 million metric tons to 3 million after the crop received little to no rain from late May to late June. The harvested-area forecast dropped 0.5 million hectares, and yield declined 15% to 1.67 metric tons per hectare.
Canada’s oat production forecast decreased 0.2 million metric tons following a 60,000-hectare reduction in expected harvested area, based on Statistics Canada survey results.
Trade forecast rises
Global coarse grains trade for the 2026/27 trade year increased 4.4 million metric tons to 254.5 million metric tons, primarily from higher corn trade projections.
Argentina’s corn export forecast rose 2 million metric tons to 40 million metric tons, based on a larger 2025/26 corn crop projection. Canada’s corn export projection climbed 1.1 million metric tons to 3 million metric tons, which would set a record for the country.
Corn shipments from Argentina to China through the end of June exceeded 600,000 metric tons for the October-September trade year, according to sailed vessel data from Agencia Maritima Nabsa S.A. Argentina’s prices have been $10-15 per metric ton lower than competitors for the Chinese corn market in 2026.
Other crops see mixed results
Barley production for 2026/27 is forecast at 142.3 million bushels, down 4.5% from last month but up 1% from last year. Harvested area dropped to 1.874 million acres, while yield is forecast at 75.9 bushels per acre, down from 80 bushels per acre in 2025.
Oats production increased 8.2 million bushels to 63.2 million for 2026/27. Harvested area rose 77,000 acres to 0.877 million acres, and yield is forecast at 72.1 bushels per acre.
The marketing year average price for corn remains unchanged at $4.15 per bushel for 2025/26.
