U.S. grain stocks reached their highest levels since 2020 on June 1, setting the stage for increased transportation demand through the remainder of the year, according to a report from USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service.
Grain stocks totaled 192.0 million metric tons as of June 1, up 17% from the three-year average. The elevated inventory follows a record-setting quarter in which 138.7 million metric tons of grain moved through transportation channels between March and June, 12% above average.
Rail shipments exceed projections
Class I railroads originated 71,300 more grain carloads than average during the March-June period, a 23% increase. The surge was twice what historical transportation patterns would suggest, indicating a shift toward rail from other modes.
All of the increase occurred in the Central U.S. and West. Eastern railroads CSX Transportation and Norfolk Southern Railway originated 3,800 fewer cars than average, down 7%, due to lower beginning stocks in March.
Barge traffic on the Mississippi River increased 9%, with 684 more grain barges than average unloaded in the New Orleans region. However, this fell short of historical projections, further suggesting a modal shift toward rail.
Export growth fuels movement
Grain exports from March through May totaled 39.2 million metric tons, up 24% from average. Corn exports rose 20%, soybeans increased 42% and sorghum surged 111% compared to average levels.
Soybean and sorghum exports to China jumped 90% from average during the quarter after hitting historic lows earlier in the marketing year. Exports from rail-served destinations in the Pacific Northwest and Texas Gulf were particularly strong.
Domestic grain use also reached its highest level since 2019 at 99.1 million metric tons, up 8% from average.
Regional stock concentrations
Six states accounted for 78% of above-average grain stocks as of June 1. Nebraska led with stocks up 4.8 million metric tons, a 35% increase. Kansas followed at 4.0 million metric tons above average, up 41%.
Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota and North Dakota each held between 2.7 million and 3.6 million metric tons above their respective averages.
Recent rail data confirms the pattern. Through June 26, Minnesota loaded 6,600 more grain cars than its four-week average, up 34%. Nebraska increased 43%, North Dakota rose 31% and Kansas climbed 55%.
Acreage shifts ahead
Looking toward the 2026-27 marketing year, farmers intend to harvest 3.8 million fewer corn acres than last year, a 4% decline, according to USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. Soybean harvested area is projected to rise 1.4 million acres, up 2% from average.
Kansas expects the largest corn acreage increase at 0.8 million acres above average. The state also plans to add 0.4 million soybean acres.
Winter wheat harvest was 59% complete as of July 5, ahead of the five-year average. However, the 2026-27 winter wheat crop is forecast at 27.8 million metric tons, which would be the smallest since 1965-66.
