US wheat stocks are forecast to drop 21% to 722 million bushels in 2026/27, the lowest level in three years, driven by a 23% decline in overall production due to severe drought conditions that hit Hard Red Winter wheat particularly hard.
- US wheat production forecast down 23% year over year with ending stocks falling to 722 million bushels, a three-year low
- Hard Red Winter wheat faces its smallest crop since 1957/58 at 471 million bushels, down 41% due to drought, lower yields, and higher abandonment rates
- Hard Red Spring wheat expected to capture larger market share with production at 436 million bushels, becoming the largest class of US exports this year
- Soft Red Winter production down 19% to 287 million bushels and White wheat down 4% to 271 million bushels
- US imports of Hard Red Winter expected to increase significantly to compensate for domestic shortage
The U.S. Department of Agriculture released its by-class balance sheets for the 2026/27 marketing year in the Wheat Outlook: July 2026 report, revealing significant declines across all wheat classes. Overall U.S. wheat production is forecast down 23% year over year, with total ending stocks expected to fall 21% to 722 million bushels, a three-year low.
Hard Red Winter faces historic decline
Hard Red Winter wheat, typically the largest class of U.S. production, is forecast to have its smallest crop since 1957/58 at 471 million bushels. Production plummeted 41% this year due to major drought conditions that resulted in lower yields and higher abandonment rates. Even with HRW exports forecast down 35% year over year and food use at the lowest level since 2014/15, ending stocks of that class are still expected down 30% from 2025/26 to 308 million bushels.
The drought-stricken crop has prompted some U.S. export competitors to book sales likely destined for East Coast mills, with imports of HRW expected to be larger this year to compensate for the shortfall.
Hard Red Spring takes larger market share
Hard Red Spring is expected to take a larger share of food use and exports, leaving ending stocks of that class down 13% to 201 million bushels. HRS production is forecast at 436 million bushels, down 5% from the previous year on reduced area harvested, though yields are forecast slightly higher with generally favorable growing conditions in the Northern Plains.
Millers are expected to use more HRS in place of HRW given the historically narrow price spread between the two classes. HRS is expected to be the largest class of U.S. exports this year, partly driven by reduced exports from Canada, a major competitor for high-protein spring wheat.
Other classes show declines
Soft Red Winter production is projected down 19% this year to 287 million bushels, mainly driven by smaller area harvested. Exports and ending stocks are forecast down 18 and 23%, respectively.
White wheat production is forecast down 4% from last year to 271 million bushels on reduced yield and area harvested. Durum production is forecast at 71 million bushels, down 18% year over year on smaller area harvested and a slightly lower yield estimate.
The season-average all-wheat farm price for 2026/27 is forecast at $6.00 per bushel, unchanged from the June forecast.
