The U.S. Department of Agriculture lowered its domestic wheat production forecast for 2026-27 while raising global wheat output projections, according to the June World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report released Wednesday.
U.S. all wheat production is projected at 1,543 million bushels, down 18 million from last month largely on smaller Hard Red Winter wheat production. The all wheat yield is down 0.5 bushels per acre to 47.0 bushels.
With exports unchanged at 775 million bushels, ending stocks are projected at 744 million bushels, 20 percent below the previous year. The season-average farm price is projected at $6.00 per bushel, down $0.50 from last month.
Global wheat production increases
Global wheat supplies are projected up 1.7 million tons to 1,100 million tons, mainly on increased production for Russia, Turkey and Ukraine, partly offset by lower production in Australia and Pakistan.
Russian wheat production was raised 2.0 million tons to 88.0 million as near-ideal weather conditions and above-average rainfall support a higher yield forecast for winter wheat. Turkey’s production was raised 1.5 million tons to a record 22.5 million, and Ukraine was raised 0.5 million tons to 23.5 million, both based on favorable spring weather.
In Australia, production was lowered 2.0 million tons to 28.0 million on lower harvested area. Global consumption is raised 1.4 million tons to 824.6 million, mainly on higher feed use in Russia.
Corn outlook steady
The 2026-27 U.S. corn outlook is virtually unchanged from last month. The season-average farm price received by producers remains at $4.40 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2026-27 is forecast 5.8 million tons higher to 1.594 billion. Foreign corn production is higher, reflecting an area increase for India. For 2025-26, corn production was raised for India, Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay but lowered for Mexico.
Global corn ending stocks, at 281.2 million tons, are up 3.7 million from last month.
Rice stocks reach highest since 1985
The U.S. rice outlook for 2026-27 shows slightly higher supplies and ending stocks. With reduced 2025-26 exports, ending stocks are raised by 0.5 million hundredweight to 54.8 million, the highest since 1985-86.
The season-average farm price for all rice is unchanged at $13.50 per hundredweight, compared to a revised 2025-26 price of $12.50.
Global rice production for 2025-26 was raised 1.9 million tons to 544.7 million, mainly on India, where the government’s estimate reached a record 154.0 million tons.
Soybean projections unchanged
U.S. 2026-27 soybean supply, use and price projections are unchanged this month. The season-average soybean price for 2026-27 is forecast at $11.40 per bushel, with soybean meal at $310 per short ton and oil at 70 cents per pound.
Global soybean production for 2026-27 is lowered 0.2 million tons on reduced harvested area for Russia. Argentina’s production for 2025-26 was raised 2 million tons to 50 million.
Livestock and dairy
Total U.S. red meat and poultry production forecast for 2026 is raised from the previous month, as higher broiler production more than offsets lower red meat production.
The report noted the USDA confirmed the discovery of New World screwworm in a calf in Texas on June 3, with additional cases subsequently identified in livestock and pets. Quarantines and movement controls have been implemented in affected areas.
Beef production is lowered as slow steer and heifer slaughter is expected to continue. Pork production is raised slightly on heavier dressed weights. Milk production forecasts are raised for both 2026 and 2027 based on higher cow inventories and milk per cow.
