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Brazil's corn production for the 2025/26 season could reach 140 million metric tons, exceeding the U.S. Department of Agriculture estimate of 138 million metric tons, according to Hedgepoint Global Markets.
The consultancy maintains a positive outlook for August as the second crop delivered favorable results in several states despite problems in Goias. The harvest is running behind schedule in the Center-South, consistent with delayed planting.
Brazilian corn shipments are running about 1 million metric tons ahead of last year's pace. However, sales to Iran, Brazil's largest buyer in 2025 with 9 million metric tons, dropped 36% through June to 1.5 million metric tons compared with 2.3 million in 2024.
Corn allocated to ethanol production reached 28.5 million metric tons, 5.5 million more than the previous year. If Brazil confirms a 32% anhydrous ethanol blend in gasoline permanently, additional corn consumption could reach 1.5 million metric tons.
Argentina has emerged as the most competitive corn exporter, surpassing the United States. The USDA estimates Argentine production at 63 million metric tons, with exports projected at 45 million metric tons compared with 29 million in 2024/25.
In the United States, about 19% of planted area is under drought compared with 9% last year. U.S. exports already total 86.3 million metric tons, above the USDA estimate of 84.5 million metric tons.
