The United States winter wheat production is forecast to decline significantly in 2026, according to the National Agricultural Statistics Service’s crop production report released May 12.
Sharp decline across all wheat classes
Winter wheat production is projected at 1.05 billion bushels, down 25% from 2025 levels. The forecast represents a substantial reduction driven by both lower yields and reduced harvested acreage.
As of May 1, the national yield is forecast at 47.6 bushels per acre, down 7.3 bushels from last year’s average of 54.9 bushels per acre. Area expected to be harvested for grain or seed totals 22.0 million acres, representing a 14% decrease from the previous year.
Hard red winter hit hardest
Hard red winter wheat faces the steepest decline, with production forecast at 515 million bushels, down 36% from a year ago. This class typically represents the largest portion of winter wheat production and is crucial for bread flour manufacturing.
Soft red winter production is projected at 301 million bushels, down 15% from 2025. White winter wheat shows the smallest decline at 232 million bushels, down 5% from last year.
Production breakdown by type
Of the white winter production, 8.03 million bushels are classified as hard white, while 224 million bushels are soft white varieties.
The production decline reflects challenging growing conditions across major wheat-producing regions.
