Article Summary
A new S&P Global Energy report shows that expanded biofuel production could increase global food and feed supplies by 45% compared to baseline scenarios, challenging the long-held assumption that biofuels compete with food production. The analysis demonstrates that biofuel output can triple by 2050 through improved agricultural yields and more intensive use of existing farmland, without requiring deforestation or additional land expansion.
- Expanded biofuel production could increase global food and feed supplies by 45% compared to baseline scenarios
- Biofuel output could triple or more by 2050 through improved yields and intensive use of existing farmland, not land expansion
- Biofuel production generates co-products like protein meals and DDGS that return to the food system
- Expanded biofuel markets would drive investment in precision farming, higher-yield crop varieties, and conservation practices
- The U.S. agriculture sector lost 209,000 farms and 58 million acres between 2002 and 2022, with 20 million acres disappearing from 2017 to 2022
A new report from S&P Global Energy shows expanded biofuel production could increase global food and feed supplies by 45% compared to baseline scenarios, challenging long-held assumptions about competition between food and fuel.
The study, commissioned by U.S. Farmers and Ranchers in Action and supported by the U.S. Grains & BioProducts Council, addresses questions from U.S. trading partners about whether biofuel growth threatens food security. The analysis found biofuel production can expand on existing cropland while simultaneously putting more food and feed into the marketplace.
“For too long, important decisions have been built on the assumption that demand for food and fuel will naturally keep pace with rising yields,” said Kevin Burkum, USFRA chief executive. “Agriculture has been treated as a zero-sum game, one where food, fuel and other bio-based products compete against one another for limited resources; that is not what this data shows.”
The report comes as U.S. agriculture faces mounting challenges. The farm sector lost 209,000 farms and 58 million acres between 2002 and 2022, with the greatest losses occurring from 2017 to 2022 when 20 million acres disappeared. Global demand has failed to keep pace with rising production as population growth decelerates and per capita food consumption slows.
Under a scenario where biofuel demand expands, the study projects global biofuel output could triple or more by 2050. The analysis shows these production gains would come through improved yields and more intensive use of existing farmland, not through deforestation or land expansion.
Biofuel production also generates co-products like protein meals and DDGS that return to the food system. The study found expanded biofuel markets would drive investment in modern agricultural techniques including precision farming, higher-yield crop varieties and conservation practices.
“For the Council, reports like these provide data that can be used to educate our trading partners about the benefits of higher blend rates for renewable fuels, while positioning U.S. farmers to supply a growing share of the approximately 940-billion-gallon global liquid fuel market that includes marine and aviation fuels,” said Alicia Koch, USGBC director of global ethanol export development.
