The U.S. rice industry faces its smallest crop in nearly four decades as production for 2026/27 dropped to 153.3 million hundredweight, according to the July Rice Outlook report from USDA’s Economic Research Service. The forecast represents a 26% decline from the prior year and marks the lowest production level since 1987/88.
Harvested area drives production decline
The production reduction stems from smaller harvested area reported in USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service June 30 Acreage report. All rice harvested area fell to 1.979 million acres, down 287,000 acres from last month’s forecast and 28% below the prior year. This represents the smallest harvested area since 1972/73.
Long-grain rice production dropped to 104.1 million cwt, the lowest since 1993/94. Arkansas would see its smallest long-grain harvested acres since 1977/78 if the forecast holds, while Louisiana would record its lowest since 2006/07. Both Mississippi and Texas would mark their smallest harvested areas since at least 1972/73. Unfavorable rice prices and elevated input costs led producers to plant alternative crops.
Medium- and short-grain production fell to 49.2 million cwt, the lowest since 2022/23. California’s harvested area for these varieties dropped to 604,000 acres.
Imports reach record levels
With less domestic rice available, imports for 2026/27 jumped 4.0 million cwt to a record 49.8 million cwt, surpassing the previous high of 49.3 million cwt set in 2024/25. Long-grain imports account for the entire increase, rising 16% from a year earlier to 43.0 million cwt. The bulk of U.S. long-grain imports are expected to remain Asian aromatic varieties, primarily jasmine from Thailand and basmati from India and Pakistan.
Tight supplies push prices higher
The combination of reduced production and lower beginning stocks pushed ending stocks down 11.9 million cwt to 30.9 million, a four-year low and 40% below a year earlier. Reflecting the tighter supply outlook, the 2026/27 all rice season average farm price rose $1.40 to $14.90 per cwt. Long-grain prices increased $1.50 to $13.50 per cwt, while California medium- and short-grain prices rose $0.50 to $20.50 per cwt.
Domestic consumption fell 8.0 million cwt to 146.0 million, while exports dropped 1.0 million cwt to 78.0 million for the marketing year.
