U.S. soybean and canola production for marketing year 2026/27 are forecast at record levels of 4.5 billion bushels and 5.4 billion pounds, respectively, according to the Oil Crops Outlook: July 2026 report released July 14 by the USDA’s Economic Research Service.
The production increases stem from higher planted acreage, with farmers responding to stronger profitability for oil crops compared to other commodities. U.S. farmers planted 85.4 million acres of soybeans, up 5% from last year, and nearly 3 million acres of canola, up 27% from last year, according to the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service Acreage report released June 30.
“These estimates reflect the stronger profitability for oil crops compared to other crops, especially wheat, corn and other feed grains, along with expected crop rotations,” the report stated. Oilseed prices have been supported by strong domestic crush to meet growing demand for vegetable oils and meals.
In contrast, farmers planted 95.3 million acres of corn, 3.4 million acres less than marketing year 2025/26, and total wheat planted area is down 6% at 42.7 million acres.
Soybean exports expected to climb
With higher supply and strong foreign demand, the U.S. soybean export forecast for marketing year 2026/27 is raised to 1.66 billion bushels. U.S. soybean ending stocks for marketing year 2026/27 are projected at 310 million bushels, unchanged from last month’s forecast. The U.S. season average soybean price forecast for marketing year 2026/27 remains at $11.40 per bushel.
Assuming a weather-adjusted trend yield of 53 bushels per acre, total soybean production is projected up to a record high of 4.5 billion bushels. Total soybean supplies for marketing year 2026/27 are forecast to be up 30 million bushels, as the production increase is partially offset by lower beginning stocks.
U.S. soybean exports in marketing year 2025/26 are raised 10 million bushels to 1.52 billion bushels. The U.S. Bureau of the Census reported that in May 2026, 94.4 million soybean bushels were exported, bringing the third quarter total to 350 million bushels. This number is up from last year, as there were soybean shipments to China outside of its traditional buying time.
Record canola crush forecast
With record domestic canola production, U.S. canola crush is projected to reach a record level of 5.3 billion pounds, supported by strong demand for canola oil. Canola imports are forecast to remain low in marketing year 2026/27, due to a record domestic supply and expansion of crush in Canada.
U.S. canola exports are projected to be in line with marketing year 2025/26. U.S. canola ending stocks for marketing year 2026/27 are forecast to increase marginally compared to ending stocks in marketing year 2025/26.
The U.S. season-average canola price forecast for marketing year 2026/27 is lowered this month to $24.50 per hundredweight but remains higher than marketing year 2025/26, driven by strong demand.
U.S. canola crush has been supported by stronger vegetable oil prices that are forecast to continue through marketing year 2026/27, largely driven by domestic biofuel policy. The report noted that over 80% of canola supplies are forecasted to be used domestically in marketing year 2026/27.
