The National Agricultural Statistics Service forecast winter wheat production at 990 million bushels on July 10, down 4% from the June 1 forecast and down 29% from 2025.
The United States yield is forecast at 46.7 bushels/acre as of July 1, down 0.1 bushel from last month and down 8.2 bushels from last year’s average yield of 54.9 bushels per acre. If realized, the United States yield would be the lowest since 2015.
Hard Red Winter production, at 471 million bushels, is down 5% from last month. Soft Red Winter, at 287 million bushels, is down 4% from the June forecast. White Winter, at 232 million bushels, is down less than 1% from last month. Of the White Winter production, 7.26 million bushels are Hard White and 225 million bushels are Soft White.
Durum wheat production is forecast at 70.9 million bushels, down 18% from 2025. Based on July 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 39.9 bushels/harvested acre, down 0.7 bushel from 2025. Area harvested for grain or seed is expected to total 1.78 million acres, unchanged from the Acreage report released on June 30, 2026, but down 16% from 2025.
Other spring wheat production for grain is forecast at 475 million bushels, down 4% from last year. Based on July 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 52.3 bushels/harvested acre, up 0.6 bushel from 2025. If realized, the United States yield would be the second highest behind 2024. Area harvested for grain or seed is expected to total 9.08 million acres, unchanged from the June 30 Acreage report but 6% below 2025. Of the total production, 436 million bushels are Hard Red Spring wheat, down 5% from 2025.
