USDA's Economic Research Service raised its U.S. soybean production forecast for the 2026/27 marketing year to a record 4.52 billion bushels in its August Oil Crops Outlook, up from the 4.5 billion bushels projected in July, even as the agency's first survey-based yield estimate came in below last month's trend-based figure.
Yield dips, but added acreage lifts production
The August report set the soybean yield at 52.7 bushels per acre, its first survey-based number for the marketing year and 0.3 bushels below the 53-bushel trend yield USDA used in July. The lower yield was more than offset by additional acreage. USDA raised its harvested acreage forecast by 1.4 million acres to 85.8 million acres, citing higher planted area mainly in the Delta and Central Plains. That built on the July Acreage report, which had already pegged planted soybean acreage at 85.4 million acres, up 5% from last year on stronger profitability for oil crops compared with corn and wheat.
Crop ratings trail last year's pace
Crop conditions also shifted between the two reports. USDA's August update showed 63% of the soybean crop rated good to excellent as of Aug. 2, down from 69% at the same point last year, though planting had moved ahead of the 5-year average pace in most states except Michigan.
Crush and stocks climb
Export and price forecasts held steady across both months. Soybean exports for 2026/27 remained unchanged at 1.66 billion bushels, and the season-average farm price stayed at $11.40 per bushel in both reports.
Crush and ending stocks moved higher in August, however. USDA raised its soybean crush forecast by 30 million bushels to 2.78 billion bushels, up from an unchanged figure in July, citing continued demand for soybean meal and oil.
Ending stocks rose to 320 million bushels in August, 10 million bushels above July's 310-million-bushel estimate, as the production increase outpaced a reduction in beginning stocks.
Global crush sets a record
Globally, soybean crush also climbed. USDA's August forecast put world soybean crush for 2026/27 at a record 384.8 million metric tons, up 0.6 million metric tons from July's 384.2-million-metric-ton estimate, with higher crush revisions for Brazil, Egypt, India, Pakistan and Paraguay supporting the increase.
Canola spotlight shifts to Canada
Canola saw less attention in August's domestic outlook after July had projected record U.S. production of 5.4 billion pounds and record crush of 5.3 billion pounds.
August's report instead highlighted Canada's rapeseed crop, raising that country's production forecast by 0.5 million metric tons to a record 22.5 million metric tons on higher yields, with crush expanding to 13.7 million metric tons on new processing capacity from Louis Dreyfus Company and Cargill.
