The U.S. grain transportation system continues to experience strong demand in the 2025/26 marketing year, driven largely by record corn production and evolving export dynamics, according to the USDA’s November 27 Grain Transportation Report.
Year-to-date data show that both Mississippi River System (MRS) barge movements and Class I rail grain carloads remain above their prior three-year averages. However, the grain flow pattern has shifted due to China’s temporary absence from the U.S. soybean market, with shippers prioritizing corn shipments in recent months. Soybean shipments are expected to increase as China resumes purchases.
The USDA’s latest Grain Stocks report highlights a 12 percent above-average new-crop grain harvest, led by a record corn crop. Combined with existing grain stocks, total fall grain supplies are 11 percent above average, tightening storage availability and increasing transportation pressures during harvest.
Rail volumes have remained strong, with grain carloads 9 percent above average over the past 12 weeks. Rail service metrics have generally improved, with train speeds up 3 percent and origin dwell times down 26 percent compared to recent years. However, concerns persist regarding the Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) railroad’s slower car placements and higher car counts not moving.
Secondary market railcar bid prices reflect these trends. BNSF Railway’s shuttle train bids for January 2026 placements have risen to $1,425 per car, up from $680 in October, following China’s renewed soybean purchases. Meanwhile, Union Pacific’s secondary market bids remain lower than last year, reflecting improved shipment fluidity, especially to Mexico.
Barge shipments totaled 874,250 tons for the week ending November 22, down 12 percent from the prior week and 2 percent below last year. Despite low water levels in October and November limiting barge loads, total barged grain movements year-to-date are up 13 percent from 2024, primarily due to a 25 percent increase in corn exports. Soybean and wheat barge volumes remain below average.
Ocean freight rates for shipping grain from the U.S. Gulf to Japan and Europe have fluctuated but generally remain above last year’s levels. Rates to Japan averaged $57 per metric ton in late November, up 18 percent from early 2025. Vessel loading activity has held steady compared to 2024.
Diesel fuel prices, a key cost driver for trucking grain to rail and barge terminals, fell in October but rose again in November, influenced by geopolitical factors and refining capacity constraints.
