Article Summary
Northern wheat rail rates are increasing in the 2026/27 marketing year, with BNSF raising shuttle train tariffs by $150-$250 per car depending on origin and destination, while CPKC implements uniform increases of $225 per car across most origins for both Pacific Northwest and domestic routes.
- BNSF rate increases: $150 per car for Minnesota, Montana, and North Dakota origins to Pacific Northwest; $50 for South Dakota; $200-$250 for Texas and border destinations
- CPKC uniform increase: $225 per car across most U.S. origins for both PNW and domestic destinations like Chicago and St. Louis
- Northern wheat production: 956.3 million bushels in MY 2025/26, 10% above five-year average, with durum wheat up 39%
- Export projections for MY 2026/27: USDA forecasts HRS wheat exports at 240 million bushels (up 5%) and white wheat at 200 million bushels (up 9%)
- Competitive shift: Rate changes alter competitive dynamics between export routes, particularly benefiting Texas ports due to CPKC's new single-line service to Northern Plains
Railroads serving the Northern Plains and Pacific Northwest will raise wheat tariff rates in marketing year 2026/27, with increases varying by origin and destination in a departure from last year’s uniform adjustments.
BNSF Railway will raise shuttle train tariff rates by $150 per car for most origins in Minnesota, Montana and North Dakota shipping to Pacific Northwest export terminals, according to the Grain Transportation Report from USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service. South Dakota origins will see a smaller $50 per car increase to the PNW.
The rate changes shift competitive dynamics between export routes. For shipments to Texas export locations and the U.S.-Mexico border, BNSF will raise rates by $250 per car for Montana origins and 19 North Dakota origins. Ten other North Dakota origins will see a $200 per car increase, while most Red River Valley origins in eastern North Dakota and western Minnesota will see $150 per car increases.
CPKC will raise tariff rates by $225 per car across most U.S. origins for both PNW export terminals and domestic destinations like Chicago and St. Louis. The uniform increases mean no changes to CPKC’s tariff rate spreads this year.
The rate adjustments come as northern wheat production in MY 2025/26 totaled 956.3 million bushels across all classes, 10% above the five-year average. Hard red spring wheat production reached 458 million bushels, up 2% from average, while soft white wheat production totaled 259 million bushels, up 11%. Durum wheat production jumped 39% to 86 million bushels.
Export patterns varied by wheat class in MY 2025/26. HRS wheat inspected for export totaled 223.1 million bushels, down 2% from average. The PNW exported 139.9 million bushels, down 13% from average, while Texas ports saw a 122% increase to 37.1 million bushels. The rise in HRS wheat exports from Texas ports likely reflects CPKC’s new single-line service connecting Northern Plains production areas to Texas ports and the U.S.-Mexico border.
Montana’s winter wheat production totaled 100 million bushels in MY 2025/26, up 36% from average and the highest since MY 2016/17. The state’s spring wheat production fell to 57 million bushels, down 23% from average.
For MY 2026/27, USDA projects HRS wheat production will total 436.2 million bushels, up less than 1% from average. Soft white wheat production is projected at 253.5 million bushels, up 11%, while durum wheat production is expected to reach 70.9 million bushels, up 8%.
USDA projects HRS wheat exports will total 240 million bushels in MY 2026/27, up 5% from average, while white wheat exports are forecast at 200 million bushels, up 9%.
