A new study from S&P Global Energy finds that growing biofuel demand could transform American agriculture, support rural economies and strengthen global food and energy security. The research, commissioned by U.S. Farmers and Ranchers in Action, shows biofuels as a market-driven solution that rewards farmers for adopting modern practices while preventing declines in crop acreage.
Agriculture faces supply and demand challenges
Despite rising crop yields, global demand for staple foods is slowing. Population growth is decelerating, and per capita consumption of meat and other staples is nearing saturation in many markets. At the same time, improvements in vehicle efficiency and the rise of electric vehicles are reducing gasoline demand, which limits growth in biofuel use at current blend rates.
Without new demand sources, U.S. corn acreage could shrink by about 31 percent by 2050, equivalent to losing farmland the size of North Carolina. This decline would expose farmers and consumers to more volatile food and fuel markets and threaten rural economies.
Biofuels offer a path to stability
The study projects that under a high-growth scenario, global biofuel production could triple by 2050. This growth would be driven by advances in agricultural technology, including biotechnology, artificial intelligence, and precision farming. U.S. corn yields could increase by 1.6 percent annually, allowing nearly 50 percent more production without expanding farmland.
Expanded biofuel demand would stabilize U.S. corn acreage at about 97.5 million acres in 2050, just 1 percent below current levels. This stability would support farm incomes and encourage investment in rural communities and input suppliers such as equipment and seed providers.
Food and energy security benefits
The research finds that biofuel growth would increase food and feed supplies by 45 percent compared to baseline scenarios. More than half of this supply growth would be directed toward food and feed uses. Biofuel production also generates co-products like protein meals that return to the food system.
The study highlights that sustained demand for biofuels can accelerate technology adoption worldwide, helping close yield gaps in emerging markets and enhancing global food security. It also notes that biofuels provide a domestically produced renewable energy source that can moderate fuel price volatility and improve energy security.
The research draws on extensive data and insights from farmers, technology providers, biofuel producers, and academics. It underscores the potential for biofuels to unlock new markets for agriculture while meeting food, energy, and climate goals.
“This research demonstrates that biofuels are not just an energy solution—they’re an economic engine that could transform farming’s future,” said Maryland farmer Chip Bowling, vice chair of U.S. Farmers and Ranchers in Action.
