Food prices across the United States are projected to increase 2.9 percent in 2026, according to the Economic Research Service’s April Food Price Outlook, as consumers face continued pressure from rising costs despite some relief in specific categories.
The forecast reveals a notable divide between dining locations, with restaurant and foodservice prices expected to climb 3.6 percent compared to grocery store prices rising 2.4 percent. This gap reflects ongoing differences in operational costs between food preparation and retail sectors that have persisted since the 2009-2019 period.
Beef prices drive protein cost increases
Beef and veal prices are projected to surge 6.3 percent in 2026, building on the 12.1 percent increase recorded in March 2026 compared to the previous year. The continued price pressure stems from a cyclical contraction of the U.S. cattle herd that has reduced supplies since 2019, while consumer demand remains strong despite higher costs.
Farm-level cattle prices demonstrate the supply chain impact, with wholesale beef prices expected to increase 7.8 percent this year. The tight cattle supplies have driven farm-level prices 16.2 percent higher in March 2026 compared to March 2025, even as monthly prices decreased 2.7 percent from February to March.
Egg prices set for dramatic decline
In contrast to rising protein costs, egg prices are forecast to drop 29.4 percent in 2026 as the industry recovers from the highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreak that began in 2022. Retail egg prices fell 3.3 percent from February to March 2026 and were 44.7 percent lower than March 2025 levels.
The recovery reflects increased egg production capacity and fewer new HPAI detections during the first quarter of 2026 compared to 2025. Farm-level egg prices have plummeted 83.6 percent from March 2025 levels, with producers expecting a 73.0 percent decrease for the full year.
Vegetable and beverage costs climb
Fresh vegetable prices are projected to increase 4.8 percent in 2026, driven by weather-related production challenges and seasonal factors. Farm-level vegetable prices surged 49.0 percent in March 2026 compared to the previous year, despite a 7.1 percent monthly decline from February.
Nonalcoholic beverage prices are expected to rise 5.2 percent, partly due to higher global coffee prices that have pushed costs above historical averages. Sugar and sweets prices are forecast to increase 8.1 percent, primarily driven by rising candy and chocolate costs.
The overall food inflation rate of 2.9 percent represents a continuation of the moderated price growth seen in 2024 and 2025, following the dramatic 9.9 percent increase in 2022 that marked the fastest food price inflation since 1979.
