The World Bank projects grain prices will rise 14% in 2026 and 9% in 2027, driven primarily by a 28% surge in wheat prices due to global production declines, drought conditions, and Black Sea shipping disruptions affecting major exporters like Ukraine and Russia.
- Grain price index forecast: Up 14.1% in 2026 and 9.3% in 2027, with wheat leading increases at 28% and 14% respectively
- Global wheat production crisis: Output expected to fall 3% in 2026-27, with U.S. production dropping 23% to a 55-year low due to drought and heat
- Export disruptions: Ukrainian wheat exports down nearly 70% year-over-year; global wheat exports projected to fall 7% as all nine leading exporters report declining shipments
- Secondary impacts: Soybean meal prices rising 18% in 2026, soybean oil climbing 39%, and fertilizer prices up 14% due to cascading commodity market pressures
- Risk scenario: If Black Sea shipping attacks persist without alternative routes, 2027 grain prices could exceed baseline by 20%, surpassing 2022 crisis levels
Grain prices are on track to rise 14% in 2026 and another 9% in 2027, the World Bank said Wednesday in its October 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook, with wheat carrying the steepest increases.
The bank's grain price index is forecast to climb 14.1% this year and 9.3% next year before falling 9.2% in 2028. Wheat prices are projected to jump 28% in 2026 and 14% in 2027, maize 10% and 5%, and rice 10% and 12%. Overall food commodity prices are expected to rise about 10% this year and 7% in 2027, a cumulative 18%.
Wheat is where the pressure concentrates. Global wheat output is expected to fall 3% in 2026-27, and U.S. production is projected to drop 23% to a 55-year low on drought, extreme heat and a long-term decline in planted acreage. Harvests in Argentina and Australia are expected to fall 23% to 25%, with declines of 8% in the European Union and 12% in Canada.
Ukraine's wheat exports in August were nearly 70% lower than a year earlier, the report said, and low water on the Danube River limited an alternative route. Ukrainian wheat exports are projected to fall 11% in 2026-27 and Russian exports 8%, cutting global wheat exports 7%, with shipments down across all nine leading exporters.
For maize, the bank expects global production to decline 3% in 2026-27. Output gains of 11% in Russia and 8% in Ukraine would partly offset smaller crops in Argentina, Brazil, the EU and the U.S., while EU production is set to fall 20% to its lowest level in nearly two decades.
Feed and processing costs follow the grain markets. Soybean meal prices are forecast to rise 18% in 2026 and 10% in 2027 on demand driven by rallying feed grain prices. Soybean oil is projected to climb 39% this year as U.S. biofuel use is expected to exceed half of domestic soybean oil consumption for the first time. Fertilizer prices are set to rise 14% in 2026, led by an early-year urea surge, before returning to 2025 levels in 2027.
Supplies are tighter, not scarce. Global grain supplies are expected to decline in 2026-27 for the first time in four years, but total supplies would still be the second-largest on record and about 3% above two years earlier, which the bank said should limit price gains compared with past episodes of grain market stress.
"Commodity markets are being hit by several major shocks at once," said Ayhan Kose, the World Bank's deputy chief economist and director of its Prospects Group.
The baseline assumes Black Sea shipping disruptions persist through the fourth quarter of 2026 but ease materially in 2027. If attacks continue at their recent pace without adequate alternative routes, the bank's adverse scenario puts 2027 grain prices 20% above the baseline and food prices 12% higher, surpassing their 2022 level.
