The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service released its May 2026 Rice Outlook, projecting a 15% decline in U.S. rice production for the 2026/27 marketing year. The forecast anticipates the lowest production since 2022/23, driven primarily by a significant reduction in planted acreage.
Production and acreage decline
The 2026/27 U.S. rice crop is forecast at 175.2 million hundredweight (cwt), down more than 31 million cwt from the previous year. This decline reflects a 17% reduction in harvested area to 2.27 million acres, partially offset by a 3% increase in projected yields to 7,732 pounds per acre.
Long-grain rice production is expected to lead the decline, falling 20% to 122.5 million cwt—the lowest since 2011/12. Long-grain plantings are forecast down 22%, with every rice-producing state expected to plant fewer acres. Arkansas alone is projected to plant 280,000 fewer acres of long-grain rice. Sustained low prices and rising input costs, particularly fertilizer, are cited as key factors influencing farmers’ decisions to reduce acreage.
Medium- and short-grain rice production is projected to decline 4% to 52.7 million cwt. California’s medium-grain rice acreage is forecast to decrease by 6%, reflecting similar economic pressures.
Market outlook
U.S. rice exports for 2026/27 are forecast to decline slightly due to reduced supplies, while imports are expected to remain steady. Ending stocks are projected to fall, tightening the supply pipeline.
The season-average farm price for all rice is forecast higher, reflecting tighter supplies and increased production costs. The report highlights the critical role of global market dynamics, including competition from major exporters and shifting demand patterns.
International perspective
Global rice production is projected to remain stable, with key exporters like India, Vietnam, and Thailand expected to maintain or increase exports. Despite the smaller U.S. crop, global supplies and trade flows are anticipated to support steady demand.
The USDA will update these projections in the June and July reports as new data on planted acreage and yields become available.
The Rice Outlook serves as a vital resource for producers, merchandisers, and exporters, providing the latest official supply and demand estimates to guide pricing and marketing decisions in a challenging market environment.
