The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service projects U.S. wheat ending stocks will decline to their lowest level in 54 years as drought conditions and reduced acreage slash production forecasts for the 2026/27 marketing year.
Production outlook
Durum and other spring wheat production for 2026/27 is estimated at 514 million bushels, down 12 percent from the previous year. The projection is based on USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service prospective plantings data, 10-year averages for harvested-to-planted ratios and long-term historical trend yields for each state.
NASS will release its first survey-based production forecasts for durum and other spring wheat in the July Crop Production report.
Export projections
U.S. wheat exports for 2026/27 are forecast at 775 million bushels, down 135 million year over year. U.S. wheat prices are expected to be less competitive with other major suppliers because of the much smaller domestic crop. Global trade is forecast smaller, with several major markets expected to reduce imports.
For 2025/26, all-wheat exports are raised 10 million bushels to 910 million. Hard Red Spring is raised 5 million bushels to 235 million and Soft Red Winter is up 5 million bushels to 125 million based on the pace of export sales and shipments.
U.S. wheat exports for June 2025 through March 2026 reached 778 million bushels, up 17 percent from the same period last year, based on U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of the Census data.
Price forecasts
The 2025/26 season-average farm price remains unchanged at $5.00 per bushel. The March 2026 farm price reported by NASS was $5.52 per bushel, up from $5.12 in February 2026. The marketing year-to-date price through March is $4.99 per bushel.
The 2026/27 season-average farm price is projected at $6.50, up $1.50 per bushel from 2025/26, based on tighter forecast U.S. wheat ending stocks and higher corn prices.
Food use trends
U.S. wheat food use for 2025/26 is lowered 7 million bushels to a seven-year low of 960 million bushels. All-wheat food use for June 2025 through March 2026 is calculated at 800 million bushels, down 1 percent from the same period last year. Durum food use is unchanged at 86 million bushels.
International market
Global wheat production in 2026/27 is forecast down 24.8 million metric tons from the previous year’s record level but would still be the second-highest on record. The United States accounts for the largest reduction, followed by the European Union.
Global wheat exports for the July-June 2026/27 international trade year are forecast down 10.3 million metric tons from the previous marketing year to 214.1 million metric tons as major exporters have less supplies and several key importers expect larger crops.
