The U.S. soybean crush for marketing year 2025/26 is forecast to reach a record high of 2.61 billion bushels, up 35 million bushels from last month’s projection, according to the latest USDA Oil Crops Outlook report released April 13.
The increase reflects stronger domestic demand for both soybean meal and soybean oil, offsetting a reduction in export forecasts. U.S. soybean exports are projected at 1.54 billion bushels, down 35 million bushels from the previous forecast, as Brazil increases its market share with competitive pricing.
Despite the export reduction, U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2025/26 remain unchanged at 350 million bushels. The season-average price received by farmers is forecast at $10.30 per bushel, up 10 cents from last month’s projection of $10.20.
Soybean meal prices are expected to average $310 per short ton, while soybean oil prices are forecast at 59 cents per pound, both representing increases from previous projections. The higher crush volumes are supported by strong margins and robust domestic demand for soybean products.
March 1 soybean stocks totaled 2.1 billion bushels, up 10 percent from the same period last year. On-farm stocks increased nearly 3 percent year-over-year, while off-farm stocks jumped 16 percent to 1.2 billion bushels.
The higher inventories in the first half of 2025/26 resulted from a 420-million-bushel reduction in exports, partially offset by increased crush volumes. U.S. soybean meal exports through March 26 reached nearly 9.7 million short tons, 16 percent above the same period last year.
Soybean oil domestic use is forecast at 29.4 billion pounds, up 0.3 billion pounds from last month. Food, feed and other industrial uses are projected at 15.4 billion pounds, while biomass-diesel production is expected to consume 14.0 billion pounds.
According to the U.S. Department of Energy, biomass-based diesel producers used 0.98 billion pounds of soybean oil in January 2026, compared with 0.65 billion pounds the previous year. The share of soybean oil in total feedstocks for biomass-based diesel production rose to 43 percent in January, the highest since July 2023.
Internationally, Brazil’s soybean exports and crush forecasts for 2025/26 were raised to record highs of 115 million tons and 61.5 million metric tons, respectively. Brazil’s production remains forecast at a record 180 million metric tons, unchanged from last month.
Global sunflowerseed production is projected higher by 0.6 million metric tons to 54.7 million metric tons, led by increases in Russia, China, the European Union and South Africa. Russia’s sunflowerseed crush is forecast at a record 16.7 million metric tons on strong demand for sunflowerseed products.
The revised 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit policy, which began in January, provides payments only to North American sourced feedstocks and removes Indirect Land Use Change considerations, potentially incentivizing domestic feedstock use.
