Sheryl Wallace, CEO of Ardent Mills, said weakening consumer demand, GLP-1 medication adoption, evolving federal food policy and affordability pressures are reshaping the grain-based foods sector from farm to fork at the National Grain and Feed Association (NGFA) 130th Annual Convention in Nashville, Tennessee.
Flour demand under pressure
Wallace pointed to declining flour demand as a central concern for millers. U.S. flour production recently fell to its lowest level since 2011, while per capita consumption has dropped to a 25-year low — trends that had previously been offset by population growth and immigration.
Sheryl Wallace, CEO of Ardent Mills, and Mike Seyfert, president & CEO of NGFA.Elise Schafer
That dynamic has shifted. USDA data shows 2025 capacity utilization at 85%, below recent three- and five-year averages. Wallace said the slowdown was especially pronounced in the fourth quarter, typically the strongest seasonal period for baking demand.
At the same time, new milling capacity added during the post-COVID production expansion has created a supply-demand imbalance, accelerating industry rationalization. Wallace said Ardent Mills has had to close facilities, even in communities with long-standing operations.
“Due to declining demand, aged assets requiring intense capital or not meeting operational efficiencies have had to close,” she said. “But we also know it’s about taking a balanced, structured and measured approach during these times in the low cycle.”
GLP-1 impact extends beyond consumers
Wallace identified GLP-1 weight-loss medications as a structural shift in food demand rather than a short-term trend. Based on Ardent Mills’ proprietary consumer panel of 10,000 U.S. adults, about 8% of adults currently use GLP-1 medications. The company estimated the figure reached nearly 23 million users by the end of 2025 and projected 30 million to 40 million users by 2030.
The impact extends beyond individual users, influencing household purchasing behavior.
“If someone’s taking GLP-1s, their mindset, how they are shopping, what they are buying in the cart — it tends to shift the entire family’s eating preferences,” Wallace said. “If they’re trying to get more protein, there’s more protein coming into that cart, higher fiber.”
Wallace also cited a January 2026 study from LEK Consulting indicating total caloric consumption across food categories may have peaked, with demand shifting toward protein- and fiber-rich products.
“The pie is shrinking and the slices are getting redistributed,” she said. “Those slices toward protein and fiber are getting bigger, and those toward grain, refined grains, are getting smaller.”
Policy adds complexity and cost
Wallace said evolving federal food policy, including the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) initiative, is adding another layer of pressure for millers. A growing patchwork of state-level regulations — now spanning nearly 30 states — is creating variability in labeling and ingredient requirements.
That fragmentation is increasing compliance costs and supply chain complexity, while also contributing to regional price differences. Wallace said food prices in states with stricter regulations are about 12% higher than the national average.
While supportive of transparency, she highlighted the need for science-based standards, particularly around definitions of ultra-processed foods and the FDA’s Generally Recognized as Safe (GRAS) ingredient approval reforms.
Innovation and collaboration critical
Despite the headwinds, Wallace stressed innovation and industry alignment as key to long-term resilience.
She pointed to Ardent Mills’ acquisition of Stone Mill, a chickpea and flaxseed facility in Richardson, North Dakota, as an example of adapting to shifting demand toward gluten-free, pulse-based, higher-protein and high-fiber ingredients.
“We don’t view this as a fad,” Wallace said. “We think there are structural reasons — whether it’s the pocketbook or our multitasking mentality — we want what we can get in every bite and making every dollar count.”
The company is also deploying AI-assisted camera and thermal imaging systems on packaging lines to improve efficiency without requiring full capital upgrades.
Wallace underscored the importance of coordinated industry advocacy, citing NGFA, the North American Millers Association, American Bakers Association and the Grain-Based Foods Foundation as key voices in Washington.
“Maintaining trust in the ag and food system has never been more important,” she said. “How we respond together is how this system will adjust and how we will be successful.”
