The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s latest Oil Crops Outlook report shows steady soybean ending stocks for the 2025/26 marketing year, holding at 290 million bushels. Despite unchanged stocks and prices, the report highlights a record-high U.S. soybean crush forecast at 2.56 billion bushels, reflecting strong domestic demand aligned with pork and poultry production.
The season-average farm price for soybeans is projected at $10.50 per bushel, up from $10.00 last year but unchanged from last month’s forecast. Soybean meal and oil prices remain stable at $300 per short ton and 53 cents per pound, respectively.
On the international front, higher soybean production in Russia and India, along with increased rapeseed output in Australia, Canada, and Russia, offset lower sunflowerseed production in Ukraine and Russia. Global rapeseed and soybean crush forecasts rose this month, while sunflowerseed crush and stocks declined to their lowest levels since 2020/21.
Sunflowerseed production in Russia dropped by 1 million metric tons due to reduced harvested area and yield, though the crop could still reach record levels. Ukraine’s sunflowerseed output fell 1.5 million metric tons, marking its lowest since 2014/15, driven by a 9% yield reduction.
Rapeseed production forecasts climbed 3 million metric tons to 95.3 million, buoyed by Australia’s expanded acreage and yield, Canada’s record yields, and Russia’s near-complete harvest. Canada’s rapeseed crush and exports were revised upward, supporting higher domestic use.
Indonesia’s palm oil production forecast for 2025/26 was lowered by 0.8 million metric tons to 46.7 million, with exports also trimmed. Lower yields and harvested area contributed to the decline, impacting global palm oil trade and stocks.
The report also noted finalized feedstock usage for biomass-based diesel in 2024/25, with soybean oil use down by over a billion pounds amid regulatory uncertainties. However, renewable diesel capacity in the U.S. continues to grow, reaching nearly 5 billion gallons by September 2025.
