Global coarse grain production for the 2025/26 marketing year is forecast slightly lower, driven primarily by reduced corn output in Ukraine and Nigeria, according to the latest United States Department of Agriculture Feed Outlook report. Ukraine’s corn harvest has been slowed by persistent rains and limited drying capacity, with only about 75% of the crop harvested as of early December—well below the previous year’s 93% and the multi-year average of 87%.
Despite these challenges abroad, U.S. corn use is rising, supported by strong export demand. The USDA raised its 2025/26 U.S. corn export forecast by 125 million bushels to 3.2 billion bushels. Early shipments are particularly notable, with first-quarter exports expected to exceed 800 million bushels—double the typical volume for that period and potentially the highest since the 2007/08 marketing year.
This surge reflects a shift in global competitiveness. Transportation challenges and a smaller corn harvest in the Black Sea region have limited exports from Ukraine and Russia, while Argentina’s corn exports have been cut by 2 million metric tons due to slower shipments. Meanwhile, U.S. corn prices remain competitive, with Gulf Yellow Corn priced lower than corn from Argentina, Brazil, and Ukraine.
Barley production is up globally, with the European Union and Canada contributing to a 3.13 million metric ton increase. Canada’s barley crop is forecast at 9.73 million metric tons, a significant rise from last year. Australia is also expected to produce a record barley crop, boosting its export projections.
The report highlights shifting patterns in barley use, noting a decline in U.S. beer production contrasted with rising whiskey output, which affects barley’s food, seed, and industrial use estimates.
U.S. sorghum production remains unchanged, but exports are up slightly, reflecting ongoing demand.
Colombia has emerged as a major buyer of U.S. corn, with imports raised by 200,000 metric tons to 8 million. Early export inspections show U.S. corn shipments to Colombia outpacing previous years, alongside increased purchases by Mexico and Japan.
