Farmer sentiment climbed in November to its highest level since June, driven by optimism about future prospects for U.S. agricultural exports and a sharp rise in crop prices, according to the Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer released this month.
The barometer index rose 10 points from October to 139, reflecting a more positive outlook among producers. The Future Expectations Index surged 15 points to 144, while the Current Conditions Index dipped slightly by 2 points to 128. The survey, conducted November 10-14, was the first since the late October announcement of a U.S.-China trade pact aimed at increasing American agricultural exports to China.
“This month’s improved sentiment reflects renewed confidence in export markets and stronger crop prices,” said Purdue agricultural economist Chris Hurt. Corn and soybean prices in the Eastern Corn Belt rose 10% and 15%, respectively, from mid-October to mid-November, bolstering farmers’ expectations for better financial performance. The Farm Financial Performance Index rose 14 points to 92, with 24% of producers expecting improved financial results this year, up from 16% in October.
Despite the positive outlook, the Farm Capital Investment Index fell 6 points to 56, with only 16% of respondents saying now is a good time to make large investments. Livestock producers, facing declining cattle prices, contributed to the weaker investment sentiment.
Trade optimism was also evident: only 7% of respondents expect U.S. agricultural exports to weaken over the next five years, down from 14% in October and 30% in March. Nearly half of corn producers anticipate soybean exports will rise in that period.
Farmland values remain strong, with short-term expectations rising to 116 and long-term expectations hitting a record 165. Most producers expect cash rental rates to remain steady in 2026.
However, uncertainty about U.S. tariff policies has grown, with more farmers unsure about their long-term impact. Still, two-thirds believe the country is headed in the right direction, though that is slightly lower than last month.
Overall, the November survey signals cautious optimism among U.S. farmers as they navigate evolving trade dynamics and market conditions.
