U.S. agricultural producers reported deteriorating current farm conditions in September while maintaining cautious optimism about the future, according to the latest Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer.
The monthly sentiment index registered 126, just one point higher than August, but revealed significant shifts in farmers' outlooks. The Index of Current Conditions fell 7 points to 122, while the Index of Future Expectations rose 5 points to 128.
"Producers' perceptions of current conditions on their farms weakened as the Index of Current Conditions fell," said report authors Michael Langemeier and James Mintert of the Purdue Center for Commercial Agriculture.
The survey, conducted September 15-19, followed USDA's September crop reports that confirmed expectations for record-high corn and soybean yields and corresponding weak prices for both crops.
The Farm Financial Performance Index dropped to 88, marking the third consecutive monthly decline. Until July, producers had expected 2025 farm financial performance to exceed 2024 levels, but sentiment has since reversed. This pessimism spilled into capital investment plans, with the Farm Capital Investment Index falling 8 points to 53.
Farmers' short-term outlook for farmland values also weakened for the fourth straight month, with the Short-Term Farmland Values Expectations Index declining 6 points to 106, down substantially from its peak of 124 in May.
Despite these concerns, most farmers (71%) believe things in the U.S. are "headed in the right direction." However, confidence that increased tariffs will strengthen the agricultural economy has fallen, with just 51% expressing optimism compared to 70% in April and May.
Offsetting these tariff concerns, 83% of farmers believe a program similar to the 2019 Market Facilitation Program is either likely or very likely if trade tensions lead to lower commodity prices. Such programs provided direct payments to farmers affected by trade disputes.
The survey also found that 53% of corn and soybean farmers currently use cover crops, with increasing intensity of use compared to previous years. More than half of cover crop users now plant them on 26-50% of their acreage, up from just 25% of respondents in 2021.
