Record-high grain stocks are driving significant increases in rail and barge transportation demand across major U.S. producing states, according to the latest Grain Transportation Report released Wednesday by the Agricultural Marketing Service.
Grain stocks as of March 1 totaled 328.9 million metric tons, representing a 14% increase above the three-year average. The elevated inventory levels follow a record corn harvest and the seventh-largest soybean harvest, which pushed December grain stocks to an all-time high of 483.1 million metric tons.
Between December 1, 2025, and March 1, 2026, grain disappearance reached a record 155.4 million metric tons, marking a 10% increase above average levels. Corn led the surge with disappearance up 14.3 million metric tons, while wheat increased 0.7 million metric tons. Soybean disappearance declined 1.2 million metric tons during the period.
Rail transportation shows strong gains
The elevated grain movement translated into significant transportation activity, with Class I railroads originating 56,200 more grain carloads than average during the quarter, representing a 17% increase. Rail transportation appeared to capture market share from other modes, with actual carload numbers exceeding projections based on historical modal distribution patterns.
Since March 1, rail shipments have remained robust, with railroads originating 25,800 more carloads than average over the past five weeks through April 4, marking a 21% increase.
Seven states account for 88% of the above-average grain stocks nationwide. Kansas leads with stocks up 7.8 million metric tons above average, followed by Nebraska at 7.2 million metric tons, Minnesota at 5.5 million metric tons, and Iowa at 5.4 million metric tons. South Dakota, North Dakota and Illinois also reported significant stock increases.
These elevated inventory levels have translated into substantial rail activity increases in key producing regions. Kansas loaded 9,400 more grain cars than average over the past five weeks, representing a 118% increase. Nebraska followed with 7,500 additional cars, while South Dakota and North Dakota loaded 4,800 and 3,600 more cars respectively.
Export demand supports transportation growth
Strong export performance contributed to transportation demand, with grain exports from December through February increasing 4.5 million metric tons above average. Corn exports surged 6.6 million metric tons, while wheat exports rose 0.6 million metric tons. Soybean exports declined 3.3 million metric tons during the period.
Domestic grain use also reached record levels at 113.2 million metric tons, up 9.7 million metric tons from average, supporting continued transportation demand across truck and rail networks.
Looking ahead, projected changes in crop acreage could affect future transportation patterns, with wheat plantings expected to drop 3.3 million acres while corn and soybean acreage remains relatively stable.
