Argentina’s soybean exports are set to increase in the 2025/26 marketing year despite a decline in production, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service December 2025 Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade report. The report also outlines a complex global oilseeds market shaped by varying production trends and evolving trade flows.
Argentina’s export surge tied to tax changes
Argentina’s soybean exports are forecast at 8.3 million tons, the highest in six years, largely driven by recent export tax adjustments. A temporary elimination of export taxes on soybeans and related products in September allowed for a rapid surge in export sales, with over 3 million additional tons registered for delivery between October and December 2025. However, soybean meal and oil exports are expected to decline slightly from 2024/25 levels due to lower overall soybean production, forecast down 2.6 million tons year over year to 48.5 million tons.
Domestic crushing in Argentina is anticipated to slow as strong export demand reduces soybean availability through March. Imports, mainly from Paraguay and Brazil, are expected to provide a vital supply boost during this period.
Global production and trade shifts
Globally, oilseed production forecasts are raised this month, driven by higher rapeseed crops in Canada and Australia and increased peanut production in Nigeria. These gains offset lower sunflowerseed production in Ukraine and Russia. Canada’s rapeseed production is notably up 2 million tons to a record 22 million tons.
Global oilseed trade is expected to increase, led by higher rapeseed exports from Canada and Australia, despite reduced soybean exports from Ukraine. Global crush volumes are down, reflecting lower sunflowerseed processing in Ukraine and Russia, partially offset by increased rapeseed crush in Canada and Russia.
Price and market dynamics
Soybean export prices have remained range-bound recently, supported by resumed Chinese purchases and strong U.S. crushing demand. The price gap between Brazilian and U.S. soybeans has narrowed, with Brazilian prices buoyed by better crush margins and tightening stocks. Soybean meal prices moderated after a sharp rise in October, while soybean oil prices ticked higher amid stock drawdowns in Argentina. Palm oil continues to act as a global discount oil due to stock buildups and reduced demand from India.
