The U.S. Department of Agriculture released its December World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, providing updated forecasts for the 2025/26 marketing year across key commodities. The report highlights record global wheat supplies, tighter U.S. corn stocks amid strong exports, and mixed signals in livestock and dairy markets.
Wheat production hits records globally
The 2025/26 global wheat outlook shows higher supplies, consumption, trade, and ending stocks. Canada and Argentina both raised production forecasts to record levels — Canada’s wheat crop is projected at 40 million tons, while Argentina’s reaches 24 million tons thanks to favorable growing conditions. The European Union also increased its wheat output to 144 million tons, supported by updated government data. Australia and Russia added 1 million tons each to their production estimates.
Despite unchanged U.S. wheat supply and use projections, global wheat stocks are expected to rise to nearly 275 million tons, reflecting strong production gains among major exporters. The U.S. season-average farm price for wheat remains steady at $5.00 per bushel.
Corn exports surge, stocks tighten
U.S. corn exports for 2025/26 are raised by 125 million bushels to 3.2 billion, reflecting robust demand and export inspection data showing shipments surpassing previous records. With unchanged supply but increased use, corn ending stocks fall by the same amount to 2 billion bushels. The season-average corn price remains at $4.00 per bushel.
Globally, coarse grain production is slightly down due to declines in Ukraine, Canada, Nigeria, Indonesia, and Senegal, partially offset by gains in the EU, Russia, and Zimbabwe. Ukraine’s corn production is sharply reduced due to wet harvest conditions. Barley production, however, is up in Canada, the EU, and Australia.
Rice supplies tighten in the U.S., global stocks rise
U.S. rice supplies for 2025/26 are lowered due to reduced imports, especially long-grain rice, while exports are also trimmed amid sluggish sales to Latin America. Ending stocks rise slightly, and the season-average farm price forecast drops $1.10 per hundredweight to $11.60.
Globally, rice supplies increase driven by higher beginning stocks, notably in India. Production dips slightly due to lower output in Madagascar and the Philippines but is partially offset by gains in India. World consumption is down marginally, while trade and ending stocks are forecast higher.
Oilseed production edges up with rapeseed gains
U.S. oilseed production is forecast slightly higher, mainly from increased cottonseed output. Global oilseed production rises, led by rapeseed increases in Canada, Australia, and Russia. Canada’s rapeseed crop is projected at a record 22 million tons. Sunflowerseed production declines due to lower harvests in Ukraine and Russia.
Soybean production is up globally, with higher crops in Russia and India offsetting declines in Canada and Ukraine. Soybean crush increases, but exports fall slightly due to reduced shipments from Ukraine and Benin. Ending stocks for soybeans rise, particularly in Brazil and Russia.
Sugar outlook reflects supply shifts and demand softness
U.S. sugar supplies dip slightly due to lower imports, mainly organic sugar from Brazil. Sugar production is steady, with increases in Louisiana and Florida offset by lower beet sugar due to higher shrink rates. Domestic sugar deliveries for consumption are forecast down slightly amid ongoing demand weakness.
Mexico’s sugar production is up but remains below earlier optimistic forecasts due to weather impacts. Deliveries for consumption rise over 5% from last year, supported by higher domestic supply and lower prices.
Livestock and dairy forecasts show mixed trends
Red meat and poultry production for 2025 is raised, driven by higher beef and broiler output, partially offset by lower pork and turkey production. Beef production increases due to faster slaughter rates and higher weights. Pork production declines on slower slaughter. Turkey production is lowered due to ongoing avian influenza culling.
For 2026, beef and broiler production are expected to rise, while turkey production declines due to reduced breeding flocks. Milk production forecasts are lowered for 2026 due to reduced cow inventories, despite higher milk per cow.
Price forecasts reflect recent market data: cattle and hog prices are lowered, while turkey prices are up slightly due to tightening supplies. Butter prices rise modestly, cheese prices weaken, and the all-milk price is lowered to $21.00 per hundredweight for 2025 and $18.75 for 2026.
Cotton production and stocks adjust amid lower mill use
U.S. cotton production for 2025/26 is up 1%, with higher yields in the Southeast and Delta regions. However, mill use is reduced to the lowest level in nearly 150 years, pushing ending stocks higher to 4.5 million bales. The season-average farm price falls to 60 cents per pound, down 3 cents from last year.
Globally, cotton production, consumption, and trade are slightly lower, but ending stocks rise, maintaining a global stocks-to-use ratio of 64%.
The USDA’s December report underscores ongoing shifts in global agricultural supply chains, with record crops in some sectors balanced by tightening stocks and evolving demand patterns. Producers and industry stakeholders will need to monitor these trends closely as the 2025/26 marketing year unfolds.
