Strong U.S. grain exports are driving increased demand across transportation networks despite China's dramatic retreat from American markets, according to USDA's latest Grain Transportation Report.
Year-to-date grain exports for marketing year 2024/25 are up 18 percent from last year, with outstanding sales increasing 20 percent. This surge has accelerated shipment pace and transformed traditional trade flows.
"U.S. corn exports have been fortified by prices that outcompete those of all other major exporting countries, low exportable supplies of major exporters, and strong demand from both longstanding and emerging markets," the report states.
The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates project corn exports at 64.8 million metric tons, potentially the largest volume since 2021/22. Mexico, Japan and Colombia have emerged as the top three corn buyers, collectively accounting for 65 percent of accumulated exports.
Perhaps most striking is the European Union's return to U.S. corn markets. The EU secured commitments 93 times higher than last year, with Spain leading purchases that have reached their highest level in 30 years.
Meanwhile, China's status has plummeted across all grain categories. Once the second-largest corn importer in recent years, China's purchases have become "almost nonexistent" at just 33,000 metric tons.
The export pattern shifts have reshaped transportation demands. Mississippi River barge movements increased 16 percent for both corn and wheat, while rail shipments of wheat to Mexico jumped 21 percent. Ocean vessel loading in Gulf ports is running 5 percent ahead of last year.
Looking ahead, Mexico's role appears increasingly critical. The country accounts for 36 percent of unshipped corn commitments, 23 percent of soybeans, and 21 percent of wheat, suggesting continued strong demand for rail and barge transportation through the remainder of the marketing year.
