Despite reaching record global production of 796.8 million metric tons, wheat ending stocks remain at their lowest level in nine years, according to the latest USDA Wheat Outlook.
The Department of Agriculture lowered its forecast for U.S. wheat exports by 15 million bushels to 820 million for the 2024/25 marketing year, citing slower-than-expected sales of Hard Red Spring and Hard Red Winter wheat. While this represents a four-year high and a 16 percent increase from last year’s 52-year low, U.S. exporters continue to face challenges in a competitive global marketplace.
“Reduced global import demand limited the year-to-year increase in U.S. exports,” the report stated, despite significant production reductions in key competitors Russia and the European Union.
Winter wheat conditions across major U.S. growing regions are raising concerns, with only 48 percent of the crop rated good to excellent as of April 6, compared to 56 percent at the same time last year. Drought remains a particular concern in Hard Red Winter wheat regions, with approximately 32 percent of U.S. winter wheat production located in drought-affected areas.
Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Dakota and Texas show the most significant year-over-year declines in crop conditions. Nebraska’s good to excellent rating dropped from 68 percent last year to just 37 percent, while South Dakota plummeted from 60 percent to 18 percent.
Global wheat trade for 2024/25 was reduced by 3.8 million tons to 203.5 million tons. Australia and Russia saw the largest export reductions, while Canada and Ukraine experienced increases due to strong trade performance.
Russia’s exports are now forecast 21 percent below last year and at their lowest level in three years, partly due to ongoing export restrictions. Meanwhile, China’s imports are projected to reach a six-year low following a record domestic crop with favorable quality reports.
Global wheat consumption was reduced, primarily due to lower food, seed and industrial use in India and China. India’s reduction reflects smaller-than-anticipated movement of government-held stocks, while China’s decrease stems from reduced import projections.
Despite these adjustments, global wheat ending stocks increased slightly to 260.7 million tons but remain at their lowest level since 2015/16, indicating continued tight supplies in major exporting nations despite the record production.
