Global rice production is forecast to reach a record 535.8 million metric tons for 2024/25, up 3.1 million tons from previous estimates and nearly 3 percent larger than last year, according to the latest USDA Rice Outlook.
India accounts for the bulk of the upward revision, continuing its dominance with a ninth consecutive record crop. At 147 million tons, India’s production is up 2 million tons from previous forecasts and 6.7 percent larger than a year earlier.
“The area expansion was driven by attractive prices, higher government support to farmers, adequate irrigation water supplies, and generally favorable weather conditions,” the report states.
Other significant production increases were reported in Indonesia, Cambodia, Brazil, Taiwan and Venezuela, which more than offset reductions in the European Union, Japan and Morocco.
The global rice trade forecast for 2025 has been raised 2 percent to 59.7 million tons, approaching last year’s record of 59.9 million. Export forecasts increased for Cambodia, India and Pakistan, which more than offset reductions for China, Thailand and the United States.
India’s exports are projected to reach a record 24 million tons in 2025, up 6.1 million tons from a year earlier, offsetting smaller shipments from Burma, China, Pakistan, Thailand, the United States and Vietnam.
U.S. rice farmers intend to plant 2.90 million acres in 2025/26, down 15,000 acres from a year earlier, according to the USDA’s Prospective Plantings report. Long-grain plantings account for the entire decrease, while medium- and short-grain acreage is projected to increase by 20,000 acres.
Rice prices continued to decline over the past month across most Asian and South American markets due to abundant supplies. For the week ending April 8, India’s export price for 5-percent broken rice decreased 8 percent to $380 per ton, its lowest level since November 2022.
Thailand’s prices fell 4.5 percent to $406 per ton, while Vietnam saw a 2.5 percent increase to $405 per ton due to strong demand from the Philippines, China, African nations, Malaysia and Cuba.
The shifting trade patterns show increasing imports for Sub-Saharan African countries, with Nigeria, Cameroon, Senegal and Cote d’Ivoire all seeing significant increases. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s imports are projected to decline dramatically by almost 3.9 million tons to 800,000 tons due to larger domestic production and substantial carryover stocks.
