The U.S. agricultural trade deficit is expected to improve slightly in fiscal year 2026, according to the latest Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade report released Thursday by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
The August forecast projects a $41.5 billion trade deficit for FY 2026, down from the $47.0 billion deficit expected for FY 2025. This improvement comes as agricultural imports are forecast to decrease from $220.0 billion to $210.5 billion.
U.S. agricultural exports, however, are also projected to decline from $173.0 billion in FY 2025 to $169.0 billion in FY 2026, continuing a downward trend that began after exports peaked at $196.0 billion in FY 2022.
The report highlights significant macroeconomic factors affecting agricultural trade, including varied GDP growth across major trading partners. While emerging markets are forecast to see 4.6% GDP growth in 2025, Europe and Central Asia are projected at just 1.3%.
China remains a crucial market, accounting for 18.2% of U.S. agricultural exports, despite its expected economic slowdown to 4.2% GDP growth in 2026.
The next USDA agricultural trade outlook is scheduled for release on November 25, 2025.
