The U.S. Department of Agriculture has lowered its projection for 2024/25 corn ending stocks by 75 million bushels to 1.465 billion bushels, driven by increased export expectations, according to the agency's April Feed Outlook report released Monday.
Export growth outpaces domestic feed decline
U.S. corn exports were raised by 100 million bushels to 2.55 billion bushels, reflecting strong international demand. Export data shows shipments during the second quarter of the marketing year exceeded last year's pace by 126.5 million bushels, with total commitments reaching 2.166 million bushels by early April — the second largest recorded commitments for that period.
"U.S. corn exports during the first half of the marketing year are 264.5 million bushels above last year," the report noted.
Meanwhile, domestic feed and residual use was reduced by 25 million bushels to 5.75 billion bushels, based on lower second-quarter disappearance. The USDA maintained its projected season-average farm price for corn at $4.35 per bushel.
Farmers planning significant corn acreage increase
According to the USDA's Prospective Plantings report released March 31, U.S. farmers intend to plant 4.7 million more acres of corn in 2025 compared to the current marketing year. Corn acreage is expected to increase in 40 of the 48 estimating states.
"Market conditions have been favorable for corn plantings, notably when comparing corn to soybean prices during harvest time," the report stated.
The Western Corn Belt states, including Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota, South Dakota, and Missouri, showed the largest increases, with corn acreage up 5.2 percent. The Eastern Corn Belt reported a more modest 2.4 percent increase, led by Illinois.
Sorghum stocks build as exports falter
Sorghum stocks as of March 1 were 42 percent higher than a year ago at 150.2 million bushels, with more than two-thirds of inventories held in Kansas. Export activities remain sluggish, with second-quarter shipments 77.6 percent lower than last year.
In response to weak export demand, sorghum cash prices continue to be discounted compared to corn. The USDA reduced its projected average sorghum farm price by 5 cents to $4.10 per bushel.
Global impact of U.S. corn exports
The increase in U.S. corn exports is contributing to a stronger outlook for global coarse grain trade in 2024/25. According to the report, "The projected boost in 2024/25 trade year coarse grains exports is largely driven by increased corn exports—particularly for the United States."
Global corn import forecasts were raised for several countries, including the European Union, Mexico, and Colombia, reflecting competitive corn prices and strong feed demand in these markets.
