U.S. soybean oil exports are set to reach their highest level in five years, with the USDA Oil Crops Outlook raising its forecast by 500 million pounds to 2.3 billion pounds for the 2024/25 marketing year. This surge comes as disruptions in global palm oil production have created new opportunities for American exporters.
In March alone, U.S. exporters sold 161,026 metric tons of soybean oil to customers across South Korea, Colombia, the Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Mexico, Panama and Venezuela. According to the Census Bureau, February exports totaled 300 million pounds, contributing to accumulated exports of 1.2 billion pounds between October 2024 and February 2025.
The export boom reflects a significant shift in global vegetable oil markets. Palm oil, historically the cheapest option, now trades at a premium to soybean oil following production cuts in major producing countries.
“The global palm oil production forecast is lowered this month by 1.3 million metric tons to 78.2 million metric tons on lower production in Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand,” the USDA reported. Heavy rainfall and flooding in key growing regions have disrupted harvests and reduced yields.
This supply constraint has prompted major consumers like India, China and the United States to pivot toward alternatives. India’s soybean oil imports are projected to reach a record 4.6 million metric tons, up 0.2 million metric tons from previous forecasts.
Meanwhile, domestic demand for U.S. soybean products remains strong. The USDA raised its soybean crush forecast on higher demand for both meal and oil. For the September 2024-February 2025 period, crush volume increased by 63.4 million bushels, or 5 percent, compared to the same period last year.
Soybean meal has emerged as a particularly competitive protein source. Prices in Central Illinois averaged $288.10 per short ton in early April, down 20 percent from the same period last year. This price advantage has boosted domestic meal demand by 0.3 million short tons to 40.5 million short tons.
Globally, the soybean meal export forecast increased by 1.9 million metric tons to a record 79.9 million metric tons, with Argentina and Brazil as leading suppliers.
The evolving market dynamics present both challenges and opportunities for the U.S. soybean industry as it navigates shifting global demand patterns and price relationships across the vegetable oil complex.
