Global oilseeds production is forecast lower this month due to reduced output of U.S. soybeans, Ukraine and EU sunflowerseed, and U.S. and Sudan cottonseed, according to the latest U.S. Department of Agriculture's Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade report.
The downward revision in production is affecting global trade patterns, with decreased U.S. soybean and Ukraine rapeseed exports not fully offset by increased shipments from Argentina. Global oilseeds crush is also projected lower, primarily due to reduced processing of sunflowerseed in the EU and Ukraine, and cottonseed in the U.S. and Uzbekistan.
Global ending stocks for oilseeds are expected to tighten, with decreases in U.S. and Argentina soybean inventories outweighing higher EU rapeseed stocks. The USDA maintained its U.S. soybean price forecast at $10.10 per bushel for the 2025/26 marketing year.
The outlook contrasts with the 2024/25 forecast, which saw upward revisions to global oilseeds production based on higher soybean output in Argentina and Uruguay and increased peanut production in Sudan.
Export prices have remained relatively stable since the previous report, with U.S. soybean prices trending downward due to favorable crop conditions and lagging export sales. Meanwhile, soybean meal prices have rebounded from record lows in July, with U.S. meal now exceeding $300 per ton on strong export demand.
Soybean oil prices from Brazil and Argentina have strengthened on robust importer demand, while U.S. oil maintains a premium due to strong domestic biofuel consumption. Ukraine sunflowerseed oil prices have increased amid reduced production expectations.
