Global corn production is forecast higher this month as record output in the United States and increased production in Ukraine and Canada more than compensate for reductions in the European Union and Serbia, according to the Grain: World Markets and Trade report released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service.
The improved production outlook comes alongside expectations for expanded global trade, with Ukraine and the United States projected to export more corn, counterbalancing decreased shipments from the European Union and Serbia.
“Global imports are also forecast up on higher imports for the European Union, Egypt, Mexico, Turkey, and Colombia,” the USDA report states.
U.S. farmers are expected to benefit from strong production but will see lower returns, as the season-average farm price is projected to drop 30 cents to $3.90 per bushel for the 2025/26 marketing year.
The report also notes that corn export prices have risen across all major origins since the July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, reflecting strong global demand and slower early-season exports from Brazil.
Argentine export bids increased $10 to $203 per ton, while Brazilian offers rose $6 to $210 per ton. Ukrainian prices saw the largest jump, up $13 to $245 per ton, due to seasonally tighter supplies.
U.S. corn remains the most competitively priced among major exporters at $197 per ton, up just $3 since July. The modest increase reflects favorable weather conditions supporting record harvest prospects.
Year-over-year price comparisons show significant increases across all major exporters, with Ukrainian corn showing the largest gain at 20 percent above August 2024 levels.
The 2024/25 marketing year is also seeing positive adjustments, with global corn production revised upward on higher output from Indonesia and Uruguay, according to the report.
