The U.S. Department of Agriculture's latest Feed Outlook report, released on December 12, 2024, reveals significant shifts in the U.S. corn market for the 2024/25 marketing year. Despite unchanged production estimates, increased demand has led to substantial revisions in the corn balance sheet.
Key highlights from the report include:
U.S. corn exports forecast increased by 150 million bushels to 2.5 billion bushels, driven by strong demand from countries like Spain, Japan, and Mexico, offsetting weak Chinese purchases.
Corn used for ethanol production raised by 50 million bushels to 5.5 billion bushels, reflecting stable domestic gasoline demand and robust foreign demand for U.S. ethanol.
Ending stocks lowered by 200 million bushels to 1.74 billion bushels, just below 2023/24 levels, due to increased usage.
The season-average price forecast for corn remains unchanged at $4.10 per bushel.
Aaron M. Ates, the report's coordinator, noted, "Although China continues to exhibit weak demand for U.S. corn, alternative destinations are seen purchasing U.S. corn—which competes with Argentina as the cheapest in the global market."
The report highlights that U.S. corn export commitments as of November 28 were nearly 1.35 billion bushels, about 330 million bushels higher than the same time last year. This increase is largely driven by strong demand from various countries, more than offsetting a 99% decrease in Chinese commitments.
Ethanol production has also seen a significant boost, with first-quarter corn use for ethanol reported as the highest since 2017. Ethanol exports through October were up approximately 23% from the previous marketing year.
