The U.S. Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service has released its December 2024 "Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade" report, revealing significant shifts in global oilseed markets. The report highlights increased production forecasts, changes in trade patterns, and notable price movements across various oilseed products.
Key points from the report include:
Global oilseed production is forecast to rise by over 1.2 million tons to 683.4 million tons, driven by higher soybean outputs in Argentina, Bolivia, and Canada. This increase more than offsets a decline in Canadian rapeseed production.
Oilseed trade is slightly down at 207.3 million tons, with decreases in Canadian rapeseed exports outweighing gains in Canadian soybean exports.
Global crush is projected to increase by over 1.2 million tons to 558.2 million tons, primarily due to higher Argentine soybean crush.
Meal trade is up 1.0 million tons to 107.1 million, reflecting increased exports of soybean meal from Argentina and sunflowerseed meal from Russia and Ukraine.
Vegetable oil trade has decreased by over 500,000 tons to 86.1 million, as lower palm oil exports from Indonesia and Malaysia outweigh increased soybean oil exports from the U.S., Argentina, and Brazil.
The U.S. season-average farm price for soybeans has been reduced by 60 cents to $10.20 per bushel.
One of the most notable developments is the unusual price dynamics in the vegetable oil market. Palm oil prices in Indonesia and Malaysia have increased, while soybean oil prices have declined. This has created an atypical situation where palm oil is trading at a premium to soybean oil. The report attributes this to heavy rains and insufficient exportable supplies in Southeast Asia, coupled with large global soybean supplies pressuring soybean oil prices.
Soybean prices have seen a slight drop due to favorable weather conditions in South America as planting nears completion. Soybean meal prices have followed this downward trend, with global supplies outpacing demand and increasing global meal stocks.
The report also notes that soybean oil prices have fallen below Ukraine sunflowerseed oil prices for nearly the first time since September 2022, indicating shifting dynamics in the vegetable oil market.
