The U.S. Department of Agriculture's latest Wheat Outlook report reveals a significant uptick in U.S. wheat exports for the 2024/25 marketing year, despite fierce competition from global rivals. Key highlights from the December 12, 2024 report include:
U.S. wheat exports forecast increased by 1 million metric tons to 23.5 million metric tons, a 20% rise from the previous year's 52-year low.
Export sales and shipments are outpacing last year, with total commitments up 23% as of November 28.
White wheat exports show the largest year-over-year increase at 53%.
Russia remains the top global exporter at 47 million metric tons, despite recent export quota impositions.
Improved weather conditions have reduced drought-affected winter wheat areas from 62% in late October to 29% as of December 3.
Andrew Sowell, the report's coordinator, noted, "Even as U.S. exports are forecast at a 4-year high, Russian exports are forecast twice as large at 47.0 MMT."
The report also highlights improved domestic crop conditions, with 55% of U.S. winter wheat reported in good or excellent condition as of November 25, up from 50% last year. This improvement follows beneficial rainfall in key producing areas of the Great Plains.
Despite the positive outlook, the U.S. continues to face stiff competition in the global wheat market. Australia and Canada are both forecast to outpace U.S. wheat exports, thanks to bumper crops in those countries.
The USDA maintains its 2024/25 all-wheat season-average farm price forecast at $5.60 per bushel, reflecting a balance between improved export prospects and global market pressures.
