The American Farm Bureau Federation is opposing the proposed merger of Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern railways, warning that the consolidation would leave farmers vulnerable to shipping cost increases at a time when balance sheets are already strained by rising input costs.
The $85 billion merger would create the first coast-to-coast Class I railroad in U.S. history, spanning roughly 50,000 route miles across 43 states. Transportation, marketing and storage expenses are projected to rise to a record $14 billion in 2026.
"The risk of the UP–NS merger is clear," Farm Bureau economists stated in their latest Market Intel analysis. "It would leave farmers more dependent on fewer railroads at a time when they already have almost no ability to walk away from higher costs or poor service."
Fewer routing and carrier options would leave large portions of the country dependent on a single railroad for end-to-end service, reducing system redundancy that protects critical food and agricultural supply chains during disruptions.
U.S. railroads carried more than 80 million tons of corn, 26 million tons of soybeans and nearly 26 million tons of wheat in 2024 alone. Food and farm products represent about 20% of total U.S. rail tonnage.
The vulnerability of agricultural shippers is magnified by the inelastic nature of rail demand. For many bulk commodities, especially grain produced far from river systems or major processing centers, rail is not easily substitutable. Trucking long distances significantly increases per-unit costs, while barge access is geographically limited.
