U.S. wheat planted area for the 2026/27 marketing year is forecast to drop 3% from the previous year, marking the lowest acreage since records began in 1919, according to the latest USDA Wheat Outlook report released April 13.
The reduction affects all five classes of wheat as farmers respond to a combination of large domestic and global supplies that have contributed to lower prices and reduced planting incentives. U.S. wheat ending stocks in 2025/26 are forecast at a six-year high, while the season-average farm price is projected at a six-year low.
Over time, substantial wheat acreage has shifted to corn and soybeans based on relative profitability and yield improvements. Some wheat ground may not be planted to field crops at all as principal crop acreage has generally declined in recent decades.
The March 31 USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Prospective Plantings report provided the first survey-based indication of 2026 acreage expectations. Seed use projections were lowered 1.5 million bushels to 59.7 million, primarily reflecting the reduced planted area estimates.
Export performance remains strong despite challenges
Despite domestic planting reductions, U.S. wheat exports for 2025/26 remain forecast at 900 million bushels, unchanged from last month. The forecast includes offsetting adjustments by class based on export sales and shipment pace. Durum exports increased 5 million bushels to 30 million, while Soft Red Winter rose 5 million bushels to 120 million. White wheat exports dropped 10 million bushels to 200 million.
U.S. wheat exports from June 2025 through February 2026 totaled 710 million bushels, up 19% from the same period last year. The strong export performance reflects competitive pricing and global demand despite abundant supplies.
Price outlook reflects supply pressures
The 2025/26 season-average farm price forecast increased $0.05 per bushel to $5.00. The February 2026 all-wheat farm price reported by USDA NASS reached $5.12 per bushel, up from $5.01 in January 2026.
Marketing weight data suggests producers sold approximately 87% of the 2025/26 crop during the June 2025-February 2026 period, based on the recent five-year average.
March 1 wheat stocks totaled 1.3 billion bushels, up 5% from a year ago. Durum stocks reached 46 million bushels, climbing 21% from the previous year. The elevated stock levels continue to pressure farm-level pricing as the industry works through abundant supplies.
Global wheat trade for the July-June 2025/26 trade year is forecast slightly higher at 221.9 million metric tons, with Russia, Argentina and Kazakhstan showing increased export activity offsetting reductions from Ukraine, Australia and Brazil.
