U.S. rice ending stocks for the 2025/26 marketing year climbed 5 million hundredweight to 55.3 million, reaching the highest level since 1985/86, according to the latest USDA Rice Outlook report released April 13.
The stock increase reflects reduced export demand and slower domestic consumption than previously forecast. Long-grain rice exports dropped 3 million hundredweight to 51 million due to continued slow sales and fewer shipments to Western Hemisphere markets. Domestic use and residual consumption decreased 2 million hundredweight to 137 million, based primarily on March 31 rice stocks data showing less December-February disappearance than estimated.
Looking ahead to the 2026 crop year, U.S. rice growers intend to plant 2.319 million acres, representing an 18% decline from 2025 plantings. The reduction marks one of the most significant year-over-year acreage cuts in recent memory, driven by relatively low prices and elevated input costs, particularly for fertilizer and diesel fuel.
Long-grain rice faces the steepest cuts, with intended plantings dropping 22% to 1.648 million acres—the lowest since 1983. Medium- and short-grain rice plantings are projected at 97% of prior year estimates, showing more modest but still notable declines.
Arkansas, the nation’s largest rice-producing state, expects the most substantial acreage reduction at 900,000 acres, the lowest since 1987. California, the second-largest producer, anticipates a 15,000-acre decrease to 500,000 acres for medium- and short-grain varieties.
The season-average farm price for all rice remains unchanged at $12.10 per hundredweight for 2025/26. However, price forecasts vary significantly by class. The long-grain price was reduced $0.10 to $10.40 per hundredweight, reflecting the 5-million-hundredweight increase in ending stocks. If realized, this would represent the lowest long-grain price since 2016/17 when farmers received $9.61 per hundredweight.
Conversely, the medium- and short-grain rice price increased 20 cents to $18.30 per hundredweight, driven by a 50-cent increase for Other States in the pricing calculation.
The substantial stock buildup and planned acreage reductions highlight the challenging economics facing rice producers. High fertilizer and diesel costs, combined with relatively weak pricing, are prompting farmers to shift acres to alternative crops or reduce overall plantings.
Rice stocks totaled 2.1 billion bushels as of March 1, reflecting the ongoing supply abundance that continues to pressure farm-level prices. The combination of elevated inventories and reduced planting intentions suggests the rice market remains in a period of adjustment as producers respond to economic pressures.
