Global wheat trade is rebounding in 2025/26, buoyed by large exporter supplies, with Argentina leading the surge in shipments, according to the latest Wheat Outlook released by USDA's Economic Research Service.
Argentina's wheat exports are forecast to increase 8.6 million metric tons year to year to a record 19.5 million tons, driven by abundant supplies from a record-large crop. Australia follows with exports up 5.7 million metric tons, while the European Union is forecast up 2.6 million metric tons. Ukraine is the only major exporter forecast to have fewer exports this year, down 2.3 million metric tons.
Global wheat exports for the July-June 2025/26 trade year are forecast at 221.6 million metric tons, the second-highest level ever behind 2023/24. Abundant supplies in most major exporting countries have contributed to relatively low international wheat prices this year.
U.S. exports on target despite slowing pace
U.S. all-wheat exports for 2025/26 remain forecast at 900 million bushels, with the pace of export sales on target to reach projections. U.S. all-wheat total commitments as of Feb. 26 are 23.0 million metric tons, approximately 847 million bushels, up 14% year to year.
Total commitments now represent 94% of the full marketing year forecast, higher than average at this point in the year. However, U.S. export sales have been slowing in recent months after a strong period earlier this marketing year.
U.S. wheat exports to many key markets are up from last year. Sales to Mexico, the Philippines and Japan increased, while commitments to South Korea declined. Export sales to Nigeria have more than doubled from a year ago and are the highest at this point in the marketing year since 2021/22. Commitments to Indonesia and Bangladesh have also surged, with both countries having signed Memoranda of Understanding agreeing to purchase additional volumes of U.S. wheat.
Global consumption and stocks
Global wheat consumption for 2025/26 is raised slightly with increases for both major categories of use. EU feed and residual use increased as wheat prices have become more competitive with corn based on abundant wheat supplies and a smaller corn crop.
Global wheat ending stocks are forecast at 277.0 million metric tons for 2025/26, down 0.6 million metric tons from February but remaining a five-year high. Major exporters are collectively forecast to hold 77.5 million metric tons in ending stocks.
The 2025/26 U.S. season-average farm price is forecast up $0.05 to $4.95 per bushel. U.S. wheat production for the marketing year is unchanged at 1,985 million bushels.
