U.S. wheat farmers can expect slightly better returns this marketing year, with the season-average farm price rising $0.05 per bushel to $4.95, according to the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates released Monday by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
The modest price increase comes as global wheat supplies and consumption both expand. World wheat consumption is forecast to reach a record 824.8 million tons, up 0.7 million tons, driven primarily by higher feed and residual use in the European Union. Global ending stocks are projected at 277.0 million tons, marking a five-year high despite a 0.6 million ton reduction from last month.
Argentina is positioned to capture a larger share of wheat exports, with shipments expanding 1.5 million tons to a record 19.5 million tons. The South American nation's wheat remains the lowest-priced among major exporters.
Corn outlook unchanged domestically
The U.S. corn outlook remains unchanged for 2025/26, with the season-average price holding at $4.10 per bushel. Global coarse grain production is forecast 2.7 million tons higher to 1.593 billion tons, with increases for Ukraine and Brazil partly offset by declines in Argentina, where February dryness reduced yield prospects.
Global corn ending stocks are projected at 292.8 million tons, up 3.8 million tons. Foreign corn ending stocks rose on increases for Brazil, Ukraine and India that partially offset Argentina's decline.
Oilseeds and livestock adjustments
U.S. soybean crush is raised 5 million bushels, driven by higher soybean meal domestic use, though ending stocks remain unchanged at 350 million bushels. The season-average soybean price holds at $10.20 per bushel, while soybean meal prices increased $5 to $300 per short ton.
Global soybean production declined on lower output for Argentina and Ukraine. Argentina's production dropped 0.5 million tons to 48 million on reduced yields.
Disease impacts livestock forecasts
Total red meat and poultry production for 2026 is raised on higher broiler production forecasts, though beef and turkey production declined. Turkey production is lowered for the second half of the year based on Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza-related culling reported through early March. Egg production is also reduced for the first and second quarters of 2026 on HPAI-related culling of egg-laying flocks.
Cattle prices are raised through the first three quarters of 2026 based on recent prices and continued strong demand for fed cattle. Hog prices increased on recent strength and stronger demand expected through the year.
The milk production forecast for 2026 is raised as increases to the dairy cow inventory more than offset slower growth in output per cow. The all milk price for 2026 is raised to $19.70 per hundredweight. Cheese, butter and nonfat dry milk price forecasts are all raised for 2026 based on recent price strength.
