Rabobank released its Fall Harvest Outlook for North America, emphasizing the need for a return to fundamentals to navigate trade instability and tight farm margins.
Stephen Nicholson, Rabobank’s Global Sector Strategist for Grains & Oilseeds, noted that the U.S., once China’s primary soybean supplier, has lost favor, with China sourcing nearly 90% of its soybeans from Brazil in 2025. “Brazil and Argentina remain competitive due to multi-crop seasons and cheaper labor, despite logistical challenges,” Nicholson said. “Shifting trade policies and tariffs threaten both short- and long-term trade flows.”
High input costs, driven by global fertilizer demand and supply shortages, are squeezing farm profitability. Sam Taylor, Rabobank’s Farm Inputs Analyst, warned that “input pricing and demand are now at the behest and timing of government policy,” creating uncertainty for farmers heading into 2026.
Owen Wagner, Senior Grains & Oilseeds Analyst, highlighted concerns over increased government payments potentially distorting markets and delaying commodity cycle recovery. “More dollars routed toward income support risk inflating input markets,” he said.
Rabobank also pointed to systemic barriers hindering adoption of sustainable practices. Eric Gibson, Farm Inputs & Crop Production Sustainability Analyst, said producers face challenges implementing innovations without tightening their balance sheets. “Managing and mitigating risk will be a larger question moving forward,” Gibson added.
