The latest data from the USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service weekly Grain Transportation Report highlights sustained strong demand for grain transportation across rail, barge, and ocean shipping modes. Despite rising fuel costs driven by geopolitical tensions, grain movement volumes remain robust, supported by record-high grain stocks and export activity.
Record grain stocks and export volumes
The U.S. grain transportation sector continues to experience robust demand, fueled by record-high grain supplies and strong export activity. Following a record corn harvest and the seventh-largest soybean harvest, grain stocks as of December 1, 2025, reached 483.1 million metric tons (mmt), 13 percent above the prior three-year average. Corn stocks accounted for most of the increase, with significant gains in western Corn Belt states such as Kansas, Nebraska, and South Dakota.
First-quarter 2026 corn exports were the highest since 2021, driving record rail volumes and strong vessel loading activity at the U.S. Gulf. Year-to-date grain rail carloads as of April 18 totaled 448,973 cars—up 19 percent from last year and 26 percent above average, marking the highest level since at least 2018. Western and central U.S. Class I railroads, including BNSF and Union Pacific, saw large volume increases, while eastern railroads CSX and Norfolk Southern experienced declines due to regional stock variations.
Rising fuel prices impact transportation costs
Fuel prices have surged following the U.S. military action against Iran in late February, disrupting oil production and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude oil prices peaked at $115 per barrel in the second quarter of 2026, while diesel prices rose sharply, reaching an average of $5.64 per gallon by early May—an increase of over two dollars since January.
These fuel cost increases have translated into higher freight rates across all transportation modes. Rail fuel surcharges jumped to a weighted average of 41 cents per car-mile in May, the largest month-to-month increase on record. CSX plans to reinstate a fuel surcharge on public tariff rates starting June 5, after a hiatus since December 2021.
Barge and ocean freight volumes and rates
Barge grain movements on the Mississippi River System (MRS) have mostly remained above average since March, despite a slow start in the first quarter due to winter storms and ice. Year-to-date barge movements totaled 9.06 million tons as of May 2, down 5 percent from last year but supported by strong export demand. Barge rates from St. Louis averaged $18.19 per ton in April, 18 percent higher than the previous year, with forward rates rising to $22 per ton.
Ocean freight rates have also increased amid strong dry bulk cargo demand and rising bunker fuel prices. Rates from the U.S. Gulf to Japan reached $67.25 per metric ton by late April, up 45 percent from the previous year. Vessel loading activity in the Gulf remains strong, averaging 31 oceangoing grain vessels per week year-to-date, compared to 28 vessels last year.
Export sales remain robust
First-quarter 2026 exports of corn, wheat, and soybeans totaled 40.7 mmt, a 12 percent increase from last year, driven mainly by corn and wheat. Corn exports were 10 percent ahead of last year and 40 percent above average, with marketing-year-to-date commitments 28 percent higher. Wheat exports were 8 percent higher than last year, while soybean exports rose 18 percent but remained below average due to competition from a record Brazilian harvest.
Despite strong export sales, unshipped balances for corn, soybeans, and wheat remain elevated, reflecting ongoing logistical challenges and market dynamics.
